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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1995

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 38

Wilder than 38% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 12.7 expected

  • Biggest shockVirginia over Florida State17% chance · won 33-28
  • Runner-upMichigan State over Michigan21% chance · won 28-25
  • Runner-upArizona State over UCLA33% chance · won 37-33

Upsets

Thu, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#2Florida State@#20VirginiaUpset
83%
17%
28
33
✗
FSU −15.5
–
–

Sat, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
LSU@#24Alabama
38%
62%
3
10
✓
ALA −4.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon State
77%
23%
14
9
✓
ARIZ −12.1
–
–
Final
#16UCLA@Arizona StateUpset
67%
33%
33
37
✗
UCLA −7.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Arkansas
18%
82%
21
26
✓
ARK −14.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Arkansas State
51%
49%
7
21
✗
SJSU −1.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#15Auburn
1.1%
99%
14
38
✓
AUB −36.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Kent State
88%
12%
28
13
✓
BALL −18.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@Temple
73%
27%
10
9
✓
BC −10.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
15%
85%
7
33
✓
BGSU −16.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@BYU
15%
85%
35
45
✓
BYU −16.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@California
60%
40%
11
27
✗
WSU −4.6
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Clemson
43%
57%
10
17
✓
CLEM −2.5
–
–
Final
#6Colorado@Oklahoma State
93%
6.6%
45
32
✓
COLO −24.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@Colorado State
3.4%
97%
10
56
✓
CSU −28.9
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Army
43%
57%
31
25
✗
ARMY −2.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#3Florida
0.1%
>99%
20
58
✓
FLA −47.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Wake Forest
70%
30%
24
23
✓
GT −9.0
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Hawaii
57%
43%
37
42
✗
FRES −3.2
–
–
Final
Illinois@Iowa
37%
63%
26
7
✗
IOWA −4.9
–
–
Final
Missouri@#22Kansas
7.0%
93%
23
42
✓
KU −23.2
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@#10Kansas State
17%
84%
10
49
✓
KSU −15.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Louisiana
15%
85%
33
40
✓
UL −16.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@Louisville
14%
86%
14
34
✓
LOU −16.7
–
–
Final
Maryland@NC State
46%
54%
30
13
✗
NCSU −1.3
–
–
Final
Baylor@#12Miami (FL)
24%
76%
14
35
✓
MIA −10.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Miami (OH)
19%
81%
23
39
✓
M-OH −13.5
–
–
Final
#8Michigan@Michigan StateUpset
79%
21%
25
28
✗
MICH −13.1
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Memphis
44%
56%
34
3
✗
MEM −1.7
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#1Nebraska
0.3%
>99%
14
73
✓
NEB −44.3
–
–
Final
Nevada@Utah State
78%
22%
30
25
✓
NEV −12.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@UNLV
65%
35%
24
34
✗
UNT −6.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Pacific
56%
44%
39
37
✓
NMSU −2.8
–
–
Final
#7Penn State@#13Northwestern
52%
48%
10
21
✗
PSU −1.3
–
–
Final
Navy@#9Notre Dame
2.6%
97%
17
35
✓
ND −30.8
–
–
Final
#4Ohio State@Minnesota
90%
10%
49
21
✓
OSU −20.7
–
–
Final
#19Oregon@#18Washington
39%
61%
24
22
✗
WASH −4.1
–
–
Final
#25Wisconsin@PurdueUpset
51%
49%
27
38
✗
WIS −0.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@San Diego State
18%
82%
29
38
✓
SDSU −14.1
–
–
Final
Stanford@#11USC
20%
80%
30
31
✓
USC −12.9
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#5Tennessee
9.8%
90%
0
42
✓
TENN −20.3
–
–
Final
#17Texas Tech@TexasUpset
52%
48%
7
48
✗
TTU −1.3
–
–
Final
SMU@TCU
10%
90%
16
19
✓
TCU −19.8
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
70%
30%
19
7
✓
TOL −8.7
–
–
Final
Utah@Wyoming
56%
44%
30
24
✓
UTAH −2.8
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
64%
36%
10
14
✗
UK −6.4
–
–
Final
#23Syracuse@#21Virginia Tech
38%
62%
7
31
✓
VT −4.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@West Virginia
28%
72%
26
59
✓
WVU −8.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 4 · TBD Youngstown State at Akron Akron −4.6 63%