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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1995

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 63

Wilder than 63% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 12.3 expected

  • Biggest shockToledo over Nevada15% chance · won 49-35
  • Runner-upWake Forest over Navy17% chance · won 30-7
  • Runner-upVirginia Tech over Miami (FL)17% chance · won 13-7

Upsets

Thu, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
North Carolina@Louisville
45%
55%
17
10
✗
LOU −2.2
–
–

Sat, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
Oregon State@Arizona State
22%
78%
11
20
✓
ASU −12.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@Arkansas
28%
72%
20
27
✓
ARK −9.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
37%
63%
0
10
✓
BALL −5.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@NC State
59%
41%
14
0
✓
BAY −3.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@California
16%
84%
7
40
✓
CAL −16.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Central Michigan
66%
34%
16
22
✗
BGSU −6.6
–
–
Final
#7Texas A&M@#3Colorado
24%
76%
21
29
✓
COLO −11.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Eastern Michigan
14%
86%
20
31
✓
EMU −18.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@Hawaii
26%
74%
21
42
✓
HAW −11.0
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Illinois
32%
68%
0
7
✓
ILL −7.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Indiana
50%
50%
26
27
✗
USM −0.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Iowa State
26%
74%
30
57
✓
ISU −10.8
–
–
Final
Houston@#24Kansas
5.1%
95%
13
20
✓
KU −27.3
–
–
Final
Akron@#18Kansas State
1.1%
99%
0
67
✓
KSU −38.3
–
–
Final
Kentucky@South CarolinaUpset
23%
77%
35
30
✗
SC −12.3
–
–
Final
Rice@#22LSU
24%
76%
7
52
✓
LSU −11.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana Tech
20%
80%
25
28
✓
LT −14.2
–
–
Final
Duke@Maryland
33%
67%
28
41
✓
MD −7.4
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
44%
56%
16
23
✓
M-OH −2.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@Michigan State
32%
68%
35
35
✗
MSU −7.9
–
–
Final
#17Georgia@Ole MissUpset
72%
28%
10
18
✗
UGA −9.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Missouri
25%
75%
22
31
✓
MIZ −11.5
–
–
Final
Pacific@#1Nebraska
<0.1%
>99%
7
49
✓
NEB −55.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
26%
74%
24
36
✓
UNM −10.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Northern Illinois
55%
45%
24
25
✗
UL −1.9
–
–
Final
#21Air Force@NorthwesternUpset
62%
38%
6
30
✗
AF −5.0
–
–
Final
#19Texas@#13Notre Dame
38%
62%
27
55
✓
ND −5.3
–
–
Final
#9Ohio State@Pittsburgh
71%
29%
54
14
✓
OSU −9.1
–
–
Final
North Texas@Oklahoma
7.7%
92%
10
51
✓
OU −23.7
–
–
Final
#5Penn State@Rutgers
85%
15%
59
34
✓
PSU −17.1
–
–
Final
#10USC@Arizona
61%
39%
31
10
✓
USC −4.6
–
–
Final
Stanford@#11OregonUpset
28%
72%
28
21
✗
ORE −10.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Syracuse
39%
61%
17
27
✓
SYR −4.7
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#15Tennessee
27%
73%
14
52
✓
TENN −10.3
–
–
Final
TCU@Vanderbilt
57%
43%
16
3
✓
TCU −2.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@NevadaUpset
15%
85%
49
35
✗
NEV −17.3
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#23Utah
28%
72%
21
25
✓
UTAH −9.7
–
–
Final
#20Virginia@Clemson
65%
35%
22
3
✓
UVA −6.2
–
–
Final
#6Miami (FL)@Virginia TechUpset
83%
17%
7
13
✗
MIA −15.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@NavyUpset
17%
83%
30
7
✗
NAVY −15.7
–
–
Final
Army@Washington
15%
85%
13
21
✓
WASH −17.3
–
–
Final
#16UCLA@Washington StateUpset
57%
43%
15
24
✗
UCLA −2.7
–
–
Final
Kent State@West Virginia
6.7%
93%
6
45
✓
WVU −24.9
–
–
Final
SMU@Wisconsin
14%
86%
0
42
✓
WIS −18.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Wyoming
28%
72%
25
45
✓
WYO −9.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD UCF at #2 Florida State Florida State −36.5 99%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD East Tennessee State at Tulsa Tulsa −36.3 98%