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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 1995

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3

Chaos 39

Wilder than 39% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.8 expected

  • Biggest shockLouisiana Tech over Bowling Green15% chance · won 28-21
  • Runner-upUCLA over Miami (FL)19% chance · won 31-8
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Notre Dame21% chance · won 17-15

Upsets

Thu, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Ball State@Miami (OH)
39%
61%
17
15
✗
M-OH −3.8
–
–
Final
Ohio@Iowa State
28%
72%
21
36
✓
ISU −8.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Bowling GreenUpset
15%
85%
28
21
✗
BGSU −15.6
–
–
Final
#4Nebraska@Oklahoma State
77%
23%
64
21
✓
NEB −11.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Southern Miss
30%
70%
13
45
✓
USM −7.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 35 games

Final
BYU@Air Force
44%
56%
12
38
✓
AF −1.8
–
–
Final
#16Alabama@Vanderbilt
60%
40%
33
25
✓
ALA −4.6
–
–
Final
Pacific@#20Arizona
6.3%
94%
9
41
✓
ARIZ −23.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Arkansas State
52%
48%
17
21
✗
USU −1.3
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#12Auburn
28%
72%
13
46
✓
AUB −8.6
–
–
Final
Baylor@Tulsa
57%
42%
37
5
✓
BAY −3.4
–
–
Final
#7Colorado@#13Wisconsin
50%
50%
43
7
✓
COLO −0.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Akron
62%
38%
49
29
✓
EMU −5.3
–
–
Final
Houston@#5Florida
4.7%
95%
21
45
✓
FLA −25.8
–
–
Final
Duke@#3Florida State
19%
81%
26
70
✓
FSU −13.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Fresno State
25%
75%
17
31
✓
FRES −9.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Georgia
37%
63%
23
42
✓
UGA −4.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Kansas
24%
76%
18
23
✓
KU −10.5
–
–
Final
Temple@#15Kansas State
13%
87%
7
34
✓
KSU −16.8
–
–
Final
Louisville@Kentucky
57%
43%
13
10
✓
LOU −3.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@Tulane
58%
42%
29
10
✓
MD −3.5
–
–
Final
Michigan@#11IllinoisUpset
27%
73%
38
14
✗
ILL −9.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@Mississippi State
31%
68%
18
28
✓
MSST −6.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@Missouri
31%
69%
7
28
✓
MIZ −7.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Nevada
29%
71%
14
38
✓
NEV −8.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
47%
53%
17
45
✓
NMSU −0.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#14Notre DameUpset
21%
79%
17
15
✗
ND −11.8
–
–
Final
#21Oregon@#17Utah
39%
61%
27
20
✗
UTAH −3.8
–
–
Final
#19Washington State@PittsburghUpset
60%
40%
13
17
✗
WSU −4.4
–
–
Final
Purdue@West Virginia
39%
61%
26
24
✗
WVU −3.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Rice
31%
69%
0
38
✓
RICE −7.1
–
–
Final
California@San Diego State
44%
56%
9
33
✓
SDSU −1.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas@SMU
56%
44%
14
17
✗
ARK −2.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@San Jose State
69%
31%
47
33
✓
STAN −8.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#25North CarolinaUpset
34%
66%
20
9
✗
UNC −5.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#8Tennessee
24%
76%
7
27
✓
TENN −10.4
–
–
Final
#24Texas@Hawaii
53%
46%
38
17
✓
TEX −1.8
–
–
Final
LSU@#9Texas A&M
25%
75%
17
33
✓
TA&M −9.9
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@UCLAUpset
80%
20%
8
31
✗
MIA −13.8
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#18Washington
26%
74%
20
23
✓
WASH −9.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Aug 31 · TBD Appalachian State at Wake Forest Appalachian State −0.6 50%
Thu, Aug 31 · TBD Marshall at NC State NC State −18.3 89%
Thu, Aug 31 · TBD Weber State at Western Michigan Western Michigan −29.7 97%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Western Carolina at Clemson Clemson −37.0 99%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Montana State at #23 Colorado State Colorado State −27.6 96%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Furman at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −29.3 97%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Youngstown State at Kent State Kent State −8.2 71%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Northern Arizona at New Mexico New Mexico −25.6 95%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Idaho at Oregon State Oregon State −23.3 94%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD William & Mary at Virginia Virginia −33.3 98%