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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1995

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 60

Wilder than 60% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 14.4 expected

  • Biggest shockKentucky over Indiana16% chance · won 17-10
  • Runner-upTulane over Rice16% chance · won 17-15
  • Runner-upCincinnati over Virginia Tech26% chance · won 16-0

Upsets

Thu, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
TCU@Kansas
40%
60%
20
38
✓
KU −4.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
43%
57%
31
21
✗
WMU −3.2
–
–

Sat, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
Arkansas@#17AlabamaUpset
32%
68%
20
19
✗
ALA −7.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Bowling Green
5.3%
95%
12
50
✓
BGSU −26.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@BYU
52%
48%
19
31
✗
SDSU −0.8
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Virginia Tech
26%
74%
16
0
✗
VT −10.9
–
–
Final
Clemson@Wake Forest
75%
25%
29
14
✓
CLEM −11.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#3Colorado
1.4%
99%
14
66
✓
COLO −36.6
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#14Air ForceUpset
26%
74%
27
20
✗
AF −10.9
–
–
Final
Duke@Army
62%
38%
23
21
✓
DUKE −5.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@East Carolina
28%
72%
17
30
✓
ECU −9.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Eastern Michigan
37%
63%
6
51
✓
EMU −5.4
–
–
Final
#10Tennessee@#4Florida
31%
68%
37
62
✓
FLA −8.1
–
–
Final
NC State@#2Florida State
6.6%
93%
17
77
✓
FSU −25.1
–
–
Final
Pacific@Fresno State
12%
88%
24
56
✓
FRES −19.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#20Georgia
11%
89%
13
40
✓
UGA −20.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@Illinois
48%
52%
7
9
✓
ILL −0.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@Iowa State
66%
34%
27
10
✓
IOWA −6.8
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kent State
50%
50%
28
28
✗
KENT −0.1
–
–
Final
Kentucky@IndianaUpset
16%
84%
17
10
✗
IU −16.8
–
–
Final
#12Auburn@LSUUpset
61%
39%
6
12
✗
AUB −4.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Maryland
39%
61%
17
31
✓
MD −4.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Memphis
36%
64%
19
33
✓
MEM −6.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Northwestern
40%
60%
30
28
✗
NU −4.2
–
–
Final
#8Michigan@Boston College
66%
34%
23
13
✓
MICH −6.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Louisville
42%
58%
30
7
✗
LOU −3.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Minnesota
32%
68%
7
31
✓
MINN −7.7
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#19BaylorUpset
28%
72%
30
21
✗
BAY −9.7
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#1Nebraska
6.0%
94%
28
77
✓
NEB −25.9
–
–
Final
Oregon State@North Texas
60%
40%
27
30
✗
ORST −4.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@San Jose State
55%
45%
18
17
✓
NIU −2.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#22Notre Dame
22%
78%
0
41
✓
ND −12.6
–
–
Final
#23Washington@#6Ohio State
24%
76%
20
30
✓
OSU −11.6
–
–
Final
SMU@#25Oklahoma
11%
89%
10
24
✓
OU −20.4
–
–
Final
#18Oregon@#13UCLA
35%
65%
38
31
✗
UCLA −6.4
–
–
Final
Temple@#7Penn State
3.2%
97%
14
66
✓
PSU −30.7
–
–
Final
Navy@Rutgers
40%
60%
17
27
✓
RUTG −4.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@South Carolina
44%
56%
21
68
✓
SC −2.5
–
–
Final
Houston@#11USC
3.5%
96%
10
45
✓
USC −30.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Utah State
84%
16%
24
21
✓
USM −16.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#15Texas
32%
68%
27
38
✓
TEX −7.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#9Texas A&M
5.2%
95%
9
52
✓
TA&M −27.0
–
–
Final
Missouri@#21Texas Tech
22%
78%
14
41
✓
TTU −13.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@RiceUpset
16%
84%
17
15
✗
RICE −16.8
–
–
Final
Utah@New Mexico
53%
47%
36
9
✓
UTAH −1.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Virginia
22%
78%
14
41
✓
UVA −12.8
–
–
Final
Stanford@Wisconsin
46%
54%
24
24
✗
WIS −1.9
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Wyoming
41%
59%
6
52
✓
WYO −4.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Southern Illinois at Arkansas State Arkansas State −27.6 95%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Missouri State at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −7.0 66%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Valdosta State at UTEP UTEP −6.4 65%