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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 1995

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 25

Wilder than 25% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 12.9 expected

  • Biggest shockArizona State over Oregon13% chance · won 35-24
  • Runner-upArkansas State over Jacksonville State26% chance · won 37-6
  • Runner-upWashington over USC28% chance · won 21-21

Upsets

Sat, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
Air Force@Fresno State
54%
46%
31
20
✓
AF −2.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Akron
35%
65%
6
14
✓
AKR −5.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@#22Alabama
1.5%
98%
19
38
✓
ALA −34.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington State
32%
68%
24
14
✗
WSU −7.1
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#16OregonUpset
13%
87%
35
24
✗
ORE −17.4
–
–
Final
#12Auburn@ArkansasUpset
61%
39%
28
30
✗
AUB −5.1
–
–
Final
Ball State@Ohio
79%
21%
6
3
✓
BALL −13.4
–
–
Final
TCU@Baylor
24%
76%
24
27
✓
BAY −10.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@BYU
26%
74%
7
45
✓
BYU −10.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Northern Illinois
80%
20%
55
19
✓
CIN −14.1
–
–
Final
Clemson@Georgia Tech
48%
52%
24
3
✗
GT −0.4
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
53%
47%
31
24
✓
CSU −1.9
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Duke
28%
72%
26
42
✓
DUKE −9.0
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Southern Miss
34%
66%
36
34
✗
USM −6.1
–
–
Final
#3Florida@Georgia
86%
14%
52
17
✓
FLA −17.9
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Iowa State
55%
45%
14
38
✗
OKST −2.6
–
–
Final
#17Kansas@#15Kansas State
40%
60%
7
41
✓
KSU −3.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Tulane
64%
36%
32
28
✓
UL −6.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@Louisville
41%
59%
0
31
✓
LOU −3.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Memphis
29%
71%
7
10
✓
MEM −8.3
–
–
Final
Temple@#13Miami (FL)
2.8%
97%
12
36
✓
MIA −30.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Central Michigan
73%
27%
17
13
✓
M-OH −10.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#9Michigan
15%
85%
17
52
✓
MICH −16.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
17%
83%
10
21
✓
MISS −14.9
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Mississippi State
46%
54%
32
42
✓
MSST −1.3
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@#5Colorado
61%
39%
44
21
✓
NEB −5.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
0.7%
99%
32
55
✓
NEV −39.0
–
–
Final
#11Northwestern@Illinois
64%
36%
17
14
✓
NU −6.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@#7Notre Dame
8.9%
91%
10
20
✓
ND −21.1
–
–
Final
Iowa@#4Ohio State
9.5%
90%
35
56
✓
OSU −20.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@Missouri
77%
23%
13
9
✓
OU −12.2
–
–
Final
Pacific@San Jose State
30%
70%
32
30
✗
SJSU −7.9
–
–
Final
Indiana@#8Penn State
6.8%
93%
21
45
✓
PSU −23.4
–
–
Final
Rice@SMU
63%
37%
34
24
✓
RICE −5.6
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Rutgers
60%
40%
24
42
✗
PITT −4.4
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UTEP
91%
9.3%
45
16
✓
SDSU −21.5
–
–
Final
#20Washington@#10USC
28%
72%
21
21
✗
USC −8.9
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Stanford
11%
89%
3
24
✓
STAN −18.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#6Tennessee
13%
87%
21
56
✓
TENN −17.5
–
–
Final
Houston@#14Texas A&M
2.5%
98%
7
31
✓
TA&M −31.2
–
–
Final
#21Texas Tech@New Mexico
72%
28%
34
7
✓
TTU −9.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
19%
81%
28
34
✓
TOL −13.8
–
–
Final
California@#18UCLA
12%
88%
16
33
✓
UCLA −18.5
–
–
Final
Utah State@Utah
10.0%
90%
20
40
✓
UTAH −20.1
–
–
Final
#25Virginia Tech@West Virginia
58%
42%
27
0
✓
VT −3.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Western Michigan
43%
57%
0
17
✓
WMU −2.5
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Wisconsin
37%
63%
14
45
✓
WIS −4.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 28 · TBD Jacksonville State at Arkansas State Jacksonville State −10.5 74%
Sat, Oct 28 · TBD Colgate at Army Army −26.1 95%
Sat, Oct 28 · TBD UCF at Louisiana-Monroe UCF −2.5 55%