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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1983

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 87

Wilder than 87% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 13.4 expected

  • Biggest shockLong Beach State over Hawaii6.0% chance · won 23-21
  • Runner-upFurman over Georgia Tech13% chance · won 17-14
  • Runner-upMichigan State over Notre Dame15% chance · won 28-23

Upsets

Sat, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 39 games

Final
Ole Miss@#16Alabama
13%
87%
0
40
✓
ALA −18.9
–
–
Final
#3Arizona@Washington State
78%
22%
45
6
✓
ARIZ −13.0
–
–
Final
#17UCLA@#13Arizona State
38%
62%
26
26
✗
ASU −5.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#21Arkansas
23%
77%
0
17
✓
ARK −12.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Ohio
47%
53%
31
14
✗
OHIO −1.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@UTEP
78%
22%
20
6
✓
BAY −12.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@Rutgers
67%
33%
42
22
✓
BC −7.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@BYU
31%
69%
28
63
✓
BYU −8.5
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Utah StateUpset
21%
79%
25
24
✗
USU −13.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@California
50%
50%
9
30
✓
CAL −0.2
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Colorado
26%
74%
3
31
✓
COLO −10.6
–
–
Final
Clemson@#4Georgia
22%
78%
16
16
✗
UGA −12.8
–
–
Final
Stanford@Illinois
36%
64%
7
17
✓
ILL −5.9
–
–
Final
#19Iowa@Penn State
51%
49%
42
34
✓
IOWA −0.2
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Kansas
15%
85%
6
57
✓
KU −17.0
–
–
Final
TCU@Kansas State
53%
46%
3
20
✗
TCU −1.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@Kentucky
40%
60%
13
24
✓
UK −4.2
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@HawaiiUpset
6.0%
94%
23
21
✗
HAW −25.9
–
–
Final
#25LSU@Rice
87%
13%
24
10
✓
LSU −18.4
–
–
Final
Army@Louisville
21%
79%
7
31
✓
LOU −13.4
–
–
Final
Purdue@#10Miami (FL)
5.5%
94%
0
35
✓
MIA −26.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#7Notre DameUpset
15%
85%
28
23
✗
ND −17.3
–
–
Final
Navy@Mississippi State
27%
73%
10
38
✓
MSST −10.4
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@Minnesota
92%
8.5%
84
13
✓
NEB −22.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Pacific
82%
18%
28
7
✓
UNLV −15.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#5North Carolina
8.6%
91%
17
48
✓
UNC −22.7
–
–
Final
#15Ohio State@#12Oklahoma
36%
64%
24
14
✗
OU −5.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Duke
41%
59%
31
24
✗
DUKE −3.7
–
–
Final
#6USC@Oregon State
86%
14%
33
10
✓
USC −17.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Syracuse
20%
80%
0
35
✓
SYR −14.3
–
–
Final
Texas@#18AuburnUpset
34%
66%
20
7
✗
AUB −7.2
–
–
Final
#20Florida State@TulaneUpset
67%
33%
28
34
✗
FSU −7.0
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Utah
48%
52%
24
27
✓
UTAH −1.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Vanderbilt
21%
79%
26
29
✓
VAN −13.5
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Memphis
38%
62%
17
10
✗
MEM −5.0
–
–
Final
#23Michigan@#11Washington
30%
70%
24
25
✓
WASH −8.9
–
–
Final
#8West Virginia@#14Maryland
45%
55%
31
21
✗
MD −2.2
–
–
Final
Missouri@Wisconsin
36%
64%
20
21
✓
WIS −6.2
–
–
Final
Air Force@Wyoming
68%
32%
7
14
✗
AF −7.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Chattanooga at Louisiana Louisiana −11.5 75%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Murray State at East Carolina East Carolina −28.1 95%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Indiana State at #9 Florida Florida −36.1 98%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Nevada at Fresno State Fresno State −3.2 57%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Furman at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −18.6 87%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Lamar at Houston Houston −31.8 97%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD West Texas at McNeese McNeese −23.8 92%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD The Citadel at NC State NC State −26.5 94%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD New Mexico State at North Texas North Texas −5.7 63%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Oklahoma State at Cincinnati Cincinnati −9.1 71%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss Southern Miss −11.2 75%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Arkansas State at Texas A&M Texas A&M −8.1 69%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Toledo at Richmond Toledo −27.2 95%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Northwestern State at #22 Tulsa Tulsa −35.1 98%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD James Madison at Virginia Virginia −17.9 86%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Western Carolina at Wake Forest Wake Forest −28.5 96%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Western Michigan at Illinois State Western Michigan −24.0 93%