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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1983

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 54

Wilder than 54% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 12.8 expected

  • Biggest shockWashington State over Arizona State7.2% chance · won 31-21
  • Runner-upTulane over Southern Miss15% chance · won 14-7
  • Runner-upLehigh over Army17% chance · won 13-12

Upsets

Thu, Oct 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisville@#19Florida State
8.1%
92%
7
51
✓
FSU −21.9
–
–

Sat, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
Utah@Air Force
38%
62%
31
33
✓
AF −4.6
–
–
Final
Houston@Arkansas
16%
84%
3
24
✓
ARK −15.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#6Auburn
9.6%
90%
13
28
✓
AUB −20.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
35%
65%
24
20
✗
WMU −5.5
–
–
Final
TCU@Baylor
25%
75%
21
56
✓
BAY −10.2
–
–
Final
#4BYU@San Diego State
89%
11%
47
12
✓
BYU −19.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Cal State Fullerton
48%
52%
17
18
✓
Cal State Fullerton −0.3
–
–
Final
NC State@#22Clemson
16%
84%
17
27
✓
CLEM −15.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UTEP
55%
45%
31
15
✓
CSU −2.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#12Florida
17%
83%
17
24
✓
FLA −14.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#10Georgia
15%
85%
21
47
✓
UGA −16.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
33%
67%
16
25
✓
HAW −6.6
–
–
Final
#16Illinois@Purdue
86%
14%
35
21
✓
ILL −17.7
–
–
Final
South Carolina@LSU
35%
65%
6
20
✓
LSU −5.8
–
–
Final
Duke@#18Maryland
9.8%
90%
3
38
✓
MD −20.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Central Michigan
37%
63%
12
7
✗
CMU −4.6
–
–
Final
#23Iowa@#9Michigan
28%
72%
13
16
✓
MICH −8.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
61%
39%
14
21
✗
VAN −4.9
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Missouri
13%
87%
0
38
✓
MIZ −17.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@#1Nebraska
0.6%
99%
19
69
✓
NEB −40.5
–
–
Final
Utah State@UNLV
45%
55%
10
28
✓
UNLV −1.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Northern Illinois
31%
69%
23
24
✓
NIU −7.3
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Northwestern
55%
45%
8
19
✗
MINN −2.4
–
–
Final
USC@#15Notre Dame
24%
76%
6
27
✓
ND −10.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kent State
48%
52%
21
20
✗
KENT −0.4
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#14Ohio State
10.0%
90%
11
21
✓
OSU −20.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#21Oklahoma
10%
90%
11
49
✓
OU −19.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Kansas
60%
40%
27
10
✓
OKST −4.5
–
–
Final
#8West Virginia@Penn StateUpset
66%
34%
23
41
✗
WVU −7.1
–
–
Final
#5Pittsburgh@Navy
95%
4.8%
21
14
✓
PITT −27.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Long Beach State
67%
33%
18
9
✓
SJSU −7.6
–
–
Final
#17Arizona@StanfordUpset
80%
20%
22
31
✗
ARIZ −13.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Tennessee
15%
85%
3
37
✓
TENN −16.2
–
–
Final
#2Texas@SMU
72%
28%
15
12
✓
TEX −9.9
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Rice
87%
13%
29
10
✓
TA&M −18.6
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
91%
8.9%
37
9
✓
TOL −21.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@#25Southern MissUpset
15%
85%
14
7
✗
USM −16.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Texas Tech
53%
47%
59
20
✓
TLSA −1.6
–
–
Final
California@#20UCLA
25%
75%
16
20
✓
UCLA −10.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@Wake Forest
46%
54%
34
38
✓
WAKE −1.1
–
–
Final
Washington@Oregon
74%
26%
32
3
✓
WASH −10.5
–
–
Final
Washington State@#11Arizona StateUpset
7.2%
93%
31
21
✗
ASU −23.0
–
–
Final
West Texas@Wichita State
12%
88%
30
31
✓
Wichita State −18.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@#24Wisconsin
13%
87%
14
45
✓
WIS −17.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 22 · TBD Lehigh at Army Army −14.8 83%
Sat, Oct 22 · TBD Lamar at Louisiana Louisiana −20.2 90%
Sat, Oct 22 · TBD #3 Miami (FL) at Cincinnati Miami (FL) −18.9 88%
Sat, Oct 22 · TBD Northern Arizona at Pacific Pacific −0.4 52%
Sat, Oct 22 · TBD Rutgers at William & Mary Rutgers −16.2 84%
Sat, Oct 22 · TBD Temple at Delaware Delaware −6.3 67%
Sat, Oct 22 · TBD New Mexico State at Texas-Arlington New Mexico State −5.4 62%
Sat, Oct 22 · TBD Richmond at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −34.8 99%
Sat, Oct 22 · TBD Colgate at Wyoming Wyoming −17.6 87%