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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 1983

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 83

Wilder than 83% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 13.4 expected

  • Biggest shockPacific over San Jose State3.4% chance · won 30-26
  • Runner-upOle Miss over Tennessee16% chance · won 13-10
  • Runner-upVirginia over North Carolina17% chance · won 17-14

Upsets

Thu, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
NC State@Duke
51%
49%
26
27
✗
NCSU −0.7
–
–

Sat, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
Southern Miss@#13Alabama
31%
69%
16
28
✓
ALA −7.5
–
–
Final
#23UCLA@#25Arizona
44%
56%
24
27
✓
ARIZ −1.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#24Arizona State
4.2%
96%
3
38
✓
ASU −27.3
–
–
Final
#5Auburn@#7Georgia
45%
55%
13
7
✗
UGA −1.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Baylor
4.8%
95%
14
48
✓
BAY −26.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
69%
31%
24
20
✓
BGSU −8.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#4BYU
2.6%
97%
6
24
✓
BYU −30.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
67%
33%
38
10
✓
CMU −7.7
–
–
Final
#19Maryland@#21Clemson
44%
56%
27
52
✓
CLEM −1.8
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#15Florida
18%
82%
7
24
✓
FLA −14.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Long Beach State
49%
51%
7
3
✗
FRES −0.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Georgia Tech
45%
55%
33
49
✓
GT −1.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@#9Illinois
4.2%
96%
21
49
✓
ILL −27.3
–
–
Final
#11Iowa@Michigan State
79%
21%
12
6
✓
IOWA −13.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas State
38%
62%
49
27
✗
KSU −4.5
–
–
Final
#2Miami (FL)@#16Florida State
57%
43%
17
16
✓
MIA −3.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Eastern Michigan
77%
23%
24
12
✓
M-OH −12.1
–
–
Final
#6Michigan@Minnesota
97%
3.2%
58
10
✓
MICH −30.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@TennesseeUpset
16%
84%
13
10
✗
TENN −15.5
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@LSUUpset
25%
75%
45
26
✗
LSU −10.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#20Missouri
38%
62%
10
16
✓
MIZ −4.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@#1Nebraska
1.4%
99%
13
67
✓
NEB −35.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Cal State Fullerton
70%
30%
13
0
✓
UNLV −8.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico
14%
86%
0
35
✓
UNM −17.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Northern Illinois
50%
50%
10
26
✗
TOL −0.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#8Ohio State
1.1%
99%
7
55
✓
OSU −36.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@#18Oklahoma
8.0%
92%
28
41
✓
OU −22.1
–
–
Final
Oregon@Stanford
36%
64%
16
7
✗
STAN −5.1
–
–
Final
Pacific@San Jose StateUpset
3.4%
97%
30
26
✗
SJSU −28.8
–
–
Final
#14Notre Dame@Penn StateUpset
56%
44%
30
34
✗
ND −3.0
–
–
Final
Army@#10Pittsburgh
0.9%
99%
7
38
✓
PITT −38.0
–
–
Final
Navy@South Carolina
20%
80%
7
31
✓
SC −13.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@SMU
15%
85%
7
33
✓
SMU −16.2
–
–
Final
Boston College@Syracuse
68%
32%
10
21
✗
BC −8.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@Temple
24%
76%
7
24
✓
TEM −10.9
–
–
Final
TCU@#3Texas
3.2%
97%
14
20
✓
TEX −29.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Texas A&M
53%
47%
23
36
✗
ARK −1.6
–
–
Final
West Texas@Tulsa
1.0%
99%
16
31
✓
TLSA −36.9
–
–
Final
Utah@Utah State
58%
42%
17
21
✗
UTAH −3.9
–
–
Final
#12North Carolina@VirginiaUpset
83%
17%
14
17
✗
UNC −15.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Virginia Tech
25%
75%
10
21
✓
VT −10.4
–
–
Final
USC@#22Washington
32%
68%
0
24
✓
WASH −7.1
–
–
Final
California@Washington State
49%
51%
6
16
✓
PK
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#17West Virginia
5.3%
95%
7
35
✓
WVU −25.5
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Kent State
51%
49%
21
13
✓
WMU −0.8
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Purdue
72%
28%
42
38
✓
WIS −10.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@San Diego State
43%
57%
33
21
✗
SDSU −2.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 12 · TBD William & Mary at East Carolina East Carolina −33.8 98%
Sat, Nov 12 · TBD McNeese at Louisiana Louisiana −8.0 70%
Sat, Nov 12 · TBD Memphis at Cincinnati Cincinnati −3.1 59%
Sat, Nov 12 · TBD Southern Illinois at Wichita State Southern Illinois −4.3 60%