The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1983

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 54

Wilder than 54% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 14.3 expected

  • Biggest shockCalifornia over Arizona16% chance · won 33-33
  • Runner-upNew Mexico State over Iowa State19% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upPurdue over Michigan State20% chance · won 29-29

Upsets

Sat, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
Memphis@#6Alabama
8.4%
92%
13
44
✓
ALA −22.9
–
–
Final
California@#2Arizona
16%
84%
33
33
✗
ARIZ −16.7
–
–
Final
Stanford@#19Arizona State
19%
82%
11
29
✓
ASU −15.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas@TCU
71%
29%
38
21
✓
ARK −9.1
–
–
Final
#24Florida State@#14Auburn
34%
66%
24
27
✓
AUB −7.1
–
–
Final
Baylor@Houston
50%
50%
42
21
✓
PK
–
–
Final
#22Boston College@Temple
65%
35%
18
15
✓
BC −6.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Eastern Michigan
76%
24%
26
21
✓
BGSU −11.7
–
–
Final
#11BYU@#23UCLA
54%
46%
37
35
✓
BYU −1.5
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Pacific
67%
33%
31
14
✓
Cal State Fullerton −7.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Central Michigan
14%
86%
7
13
✓
CMU −17.8
–
–
Final
Utah@Colorado State
73%
27%
28
31
✗
UTAH −9.9
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Missouri
34%
66%
13
6
✗
MIZ −6.9
–
–
Final
#10Florida@#15LSU
47%
53%
31
17
✗
LSU −1.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#8Georgia
22%
78%
7
20
✓
UGA −12.8
–
–
Final
#13Iowa@IllinoisUpset
57%
43%
0
33
✗
IOWA −2.6
–
–
Final
Virginia@#17Maryland
19%
81%
3
23
✓
MD −14.7
–
–
Final
#5Miami (FL)@Duke
83%
17%
56
17
✓
MIA −15.7
–
–
Final
Indiana@#16Michigan
13%
87%
18
43
✓
MICH −18.5
–
–
Final
Purdue@Michigan State
20%
80%
29
29
✗
MSU −14.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#1Nebraska
2.6%
97%
7
63
✓
NEB −32.3
–
–
Final
UNLV@Oregon State
61%
39%
35
21
✓
UNLV −4.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Iowa StateUpset
19%
81%
24
17
✗
ISU −14.7
–
–
Final
#9North Carolina@Georgia Tech
86%
14%
38
21
✓
UNC −18.2
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
48%
52%
38
15
✗
WAKE −1.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
62%
38%
27
14
✓
NIU −4.8
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Colorado
61%
39%
27
3
✓
ND −4.4
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#12Ohio State
6.2%
94%
18
69
✓
OSU −25.7
–
–
Final
#20Oklahoma@Kansas State
73%
27%
29
10
✓
OU −10.1
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Oklahoma State
36%
64%
0
9
✓
OKST −6.1
–
–
Final
Penn State@Rutgers
71%
29%
36
25
✓
PSU −9.0
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Diego State
46%
54%
27
27
✗
SDSU −1.6
–
–
Final
Oregon@San Jose State
19%
80%
34
44
✓
SJSU −14.4
–
–
Final
#18USC@South CarolinaUpset
67%
33%
14
38
✗
USC −7.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Ole Miss
67%
33%
27
7
✓
USM −7.1
–
–
Final
Rice@#4Texas
2.0%
98%
6
42
✓
TEX −34.1
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Texas Tech
44%
56%
0
3
✓
TTU −2.5
–
–
Final
Ohio@Toledo
8.7%
91%
0
31
✓
TOL −22.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Utah State
62%
38%
12
20
✗
FRES −4.7
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Tulane
42%
58%
30
17
✗
TULN −3.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@Virginia Tech
41%
59%
0
31
✓
VT −3.8
–
–
Final
Navy@#25Washington
17%
83%
10
27
✓
WASH −15.9
–
–
Final
#7Pittsburgh@#3West Virginia
42%
58%
21
24
✓
WVU −3.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Miami (OH)
35%
65%
20
18
✗
M-OH −6.5
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Northwestern
84%
16%
49
0
✓
WIS −16.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@Wyoming
18%
82%
17
49
✓
WYO −15.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD Angelo State at West Texas Angelo State −10.5 74%
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD Army at Harvard Army −5.2 63%
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD North Texas at New Mexico New Mexico −7.2 66%
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD Texas-Arlington at SMU SMU −35.5 98%
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD The Citadel at Tennessee Tennessee −37.6 99%
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD Drake at Wichita State Wichita State −0.3 50%