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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1983

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 71

Wilder than 71% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 15.9 expected

  • Biggest shockKansas over USC9.8% chance · won 26-20
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Indiana13% chance · won 10-8
  • Runner-upOle Miss over Arkansas20% chance · won 13-10

Upsets

Fri, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Oklahoma State@Texas A&M
42%
58%
34
15
✗
TA&M −3.5
–
–

Sat, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
#8Alabama@Vanderbilt
72%
28%
44
24
✓
ALA −9.4
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@#2Arizona
0.9%
99%
10
27
✓
ARIZ −39.0
–
–
Final
Wichita State@#15Arizona State
1.0%
99%
14
44
✓
ASU −38.5
–
–
Final
#24Auburn@Tennessee
45%
55%
37
14
✗
TENN −2.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Bowling Green
32%
68%
14
17
✓
BGSU −8.0
–
–
Final
#13BYU@Air Force
63%
37%
46
28
✓
BYU −5.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Western Michigan
48%
52%
32
14
✗
WMU −0.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Clemson
16%
84%
14
41
✓
CLEM −16.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Colorado
26%
74%
14
38
✓
COLO −10.6
–
–
Final
#21Florida@Mississippi State
45%
55%
35
12
✗
MSST −2.0
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Pacific
85%
15%
34
14
✓
FRES −16.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#11Georgia
19%
81%
13
31
✓
UGA −14.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@Michigan State
45%
55%
20
10
✗
MSU −2.0
–
–
Final
#9Ohio State@#12Iowa
45%
55%
14
20
✓
IOWA −2.0
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Iowa State
19%
80%
17
21
✓
ISU −14.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@#7USCUpset
9.8%
90%
26
20
✗
USC −21.5
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Kansas State
43%
57%
25
27
✓
KSU −3.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@Kentucky
39%
61%
14
26
✓
UK −4.8
–
–
Final
#14Washington@LSUUpset
51%
49%
14
40
✗
WASH −0.4
–
–
Final
#3Pittsburgh@#22Maryland
64%
36%
7
13
✗
PITT −5.7
–
–
Final
#18Notre Dame@#10Miami (FL)
33%
67%
0
20
✓
MIA −7.3
–
–
Final
#23Michigan@Wisconsin
46%
54%
38
21
✗
WIS −1.8
–
–
Final
#17Arkansas@Ole MissUpset
80%
20%
10
13
✗
ARK −13.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@Missouri
10%
90%
10
17
✓
MIZ −21.2
–
–
Final
#16UCLA@#1Nebraska
11%
89%
10
42
✓
NEB −20.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
78%
22%
31
10
✓
UNM −12.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Kent State
55%
45%
38
7
✓
NIU −1.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@IndianaUpset
13%
87%
10
8
✗
IU −18.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ohio
45%
55%
14
31
✓
OHIO −2.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#19Oklahoma
30%
70%
18
28
✓
OU −8.7
–
–
Final
Houston@Oregon
60%
40%
14
15
✗
HOU −4.1
–
–
Final
Penn State@Temple
52%
48%
23
18
✓
PSU −0.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@Minnesota
31%
68%
32
20
✗
MINN −8.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Rice
41%
59%
21
22
✓
RICE −3.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UTEP
75%
25%
41
33
✓
SDSU −11.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
38%
62%
23
10
✗
STAN −5.1
–
–
Final
#25SMU@TCU
73%
27%
21
17
✓
SMU −10.1
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Syracuse
26%
74%
13
17
✓
SYR −10.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@BaylorUpset
24%
76%
26
11
✗
BAY −11.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
20%
80%
7
43
✓
TOL −14.1
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Utah
48%
52%
25
28
✓
UTAH −0.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@NC State
29%
71%
26
14
✗
NCSU −9.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@Washington State
48%
52%
28
41
✓
WSU −0.7
–
–
Final
#6West Virginia@#20Boston College
54%
46%
27
17
✓
WVU −1.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 24 · TBD Dartmouth at Army Army −9.5 71%
Sat, Sep 24 · TBD Texas A&M-Kingsville at Long Beach State Long Beach State −13.5 79%
Sat, Sep 24 · TBD Cincinnati at Louisville Cincinnati −1.2 53%
Sat, Sep 24 · TBD Lehigh at Navy Navy −20.9 90%
Sat, Sep 24 · TBD William & Mary at #4 North Carolina North Carolina −44.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 24 · TBD North Texas at #5 Texas Texas −22.8 92%
Sat, Sep 24 · TBD Texas-Arlington at West Texas Texas-Arlington −3.6 59%
Sat, Sep 24 · TBD VMI at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −26.2 94%
Sat, Sep 24 · TBD Wake Forest at Richmond Wake Forest −21.3 90%