The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 1983

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 32

Wilder than 32% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 13.3 expected

  • Biggest shockCal State Fullerton over Nevada21% chance · won 14-6
  • Runner-upOregon over California23% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upGeorgia Tech over NC State23% chance · won 20-10

Upsets

Sat, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
Air Force@Navy
63%
37%
44
17
✓
AF −5.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#8Arizona
2.3%
98%
21
52
✓
ARIZ −33.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@ArmyUpset
76%
24%
12
20
✗
RUTG −11.8
–
–
Final
#15Auburn@Kentucky
66%
34%
49
21
✓
AUB −6.8
–
–
Final
#12BYU@Wyoming
77%
23%
41
10
✓
BYU −12.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
15%
85%
3
24
✓
CMU −17.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@#20Clemson
19%
81%
21
42
✓
CLEM −14.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Louisiana
84%
16%
21
18
✓
ECU −16.4
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#10Florida
16%
84%
10
29
✓
FLA −16.3
–
–
Final
#7Georgia@Ole Miss
89%
11%
36
11
✓
UGA −20.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@NC StateUpset
23%
77%
20
10
✗
NCSU −12.2
–
–
Final
#18Illinois@#25Wisconsin
52%
48%
27
15
✓
ILL −0.6
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Indiana
31%
69%
31
38
✓
IU −8.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Iowa
3.5%
96%
21
61
✓
IOWA −30.0
–
–
Final
Kansas@Iowa State
69%
31%
35
38
✗
KU −8.0
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Long Beach State
66%
34%
13
20
✗
SDSU −6.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#16Maryland
14%
86%
13
34
✓
MD −17.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@Memphis
51%
49%
25
28
✗
TULN −0.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@#2Miami (FL)
4.5%
96%
14
42
✓
MIA −28.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)
26%
74%
7
27
✓
M-OH −11.0
–
–
Final
#13Michigan@Michigan State
71%
29%
42
0
✓
MICH −9.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@Colorado
61%
39%
59
20
✓
MIZ −4.4
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@Oklahoma State
90%
10%
14
10
✓
NEB −21.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Texas Tech
38%
62%
30
10
✗
TTU −5.3
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#11North Carolina
7.7%
92%
10
30
✓
UNC −23.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
24%
76%
3
27
✓
NIU −11.9
–
–
Final
#19Notre Dame@South Carolina
60%
40%
30
6
✓
ND −4.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@#9Ohio State
6.7%
93%
22
33
✓
OSU −25.0
–
–
Final
California@OregonUpset
77%
23%
17
24
✗
CAL −12.2
–
–
Final
#3Alabama@Penn StateUpset
71%
29%
28
34
✗
ALA −9.1
–
–
Final
Florida State@#6Pittsburgh
26%
74%
16
17
✓
PITT −10.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
61%
39%
41
23
✓
SJSU −4.4
–
–
Final
Washington State@USC
23%
77%
17
38
✓
USC −12.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@SMU
34%
66%
26
42
✓
SMU −6.9
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Southern Miss
37%
63%
6
31
✓
USM −5.7
–
–
Final
#21LSU@TennesseeUpset
58%
42%
6
20
✗
LSU −3.5
–
–
Final
#17Oklahoma@#4Texas
31%
69%
16
28
✓
TEX −8.3
–
–
Final
Houston@Texas A&M
31%
69%
7
30
✓
TA&M −8.4
–
–
Final
TCU@Rice
69%
31%
34
3
✓
TCU −8.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
70%
30%
6
3
✓
TOL −8.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Tulsa
8.5%
92%
10
24
✓
TLSA −22.8
–
–
Final
#22UCLA@Stanford
69%
31%
39
21
✓
UCLA −8.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@Utah
17%
83%
11
35
✓
UTAH −15.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@Pacific
84%
16%
27
10
✓
USU −16.2
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia Tech
27%
73%
14
27
✓
VT −10.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington
6.0%
94%
7
34
✓
WASH −25.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 8 · TBD #24 Boston College at Yale Boston College −29.2 96%
Sat, Oct 8 · TBD Cal State Fullerton at Nevada Nevada −13.4 79%
Sat, Oct 8 · TBD Temple at Cincinnati Cincinnati −3.0 57%
Sat, Oct 8 · TBD West Texas at Illinois State Illinois State −4.6 60%
Sat, Oct 8 · TBD Ball State at Indiana State Ball State −3.4 58%
Sat, Oct 8 · TBD Wichita State at Texas-Arlington Wichita State −3.2 58%