The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1985

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 13

Wilder than 13% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 16.0 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern over Missouri15% chance · won 27-23
  • Runner-upNorthern Iowa over Kansas State21% chance · won 10-6
  • Runner-upWest Texas over Angelo State28% chance · won 12-10

Upsets

Sat, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 40 games

Final
#9Air Force@Wyoming
77%
23%
49
7
✓
AF −11.7
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#12Alabama
26%
74%
10
23
✓
ALA −9.7
–
–
Final
Washington State@#17Arizona
28%
72%
7
12
✓
ARIZ −8.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Ole Miss
45%
55%
24
19
✗
MISS −1.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Army
29%
71%
6
48
✓
ARMY −8.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#4Auburn
18%
82%
18
29
✓
AUB −13.5
–
–
Final
#13Bowling Green@Kentucky
52%
48%
30
26
✓
BGSU −1.3
–
–
Final
#15Washington@#7BYU
31%
69%
3
31
✓
BYU −7.0
–
–
Final
Pacific@Central Michigan
8.0%
92%
10
27
✓
CMU −21.4
–
–
Final
#25Clemson@Virginia Tech
73%
27%
20
17
✓
CLEM −9.9
–
–
Final
Oregon@Colorado
54%
46%
17
21
✗
ORE −2.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@Colorado State
29%
71%
24
41
✓
CSU −8.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Fresno State
54%
46%
6
26
✗
UNLV −2.0
–
–
Final
#21Baylor@#22Georgia
41%
59%
14
17
✓
UGA −2.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@NC State
65%
35%
28
18
✓
GT −6.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@Indiana
25%
75%
28
41
✓
IU −9.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@Iowa State
32%
68%
3
10
✓
ISU −6.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Kansas
38%
62%
16
42
✓
KU −4.2
–
–
Final
LSU@North Carolina
47%
53%
23
13
✗
UNC −0.8
–
–
Final
#18Maryland@#24Boston College
44%
56%
31
13
✗
BC −1.9
–
–
Final
#6Miami (FL)@Rice
84%
16%
48
20
✓
MIA −15.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ball State
65%
35%
17
13
✓
M-OH −6.3
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Michigan
43%
57%
12
20
✓
MICH −2.1
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Michigan State
50%
50%
3
12
✗
ASU −0.7
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Minnesota
6.1%
94%
14
28
✓
MINN −23.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Mississippi State
40%
60%
3
30
✓
MSST −3.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
73%
27%
34
27
✓
UNM −10.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@MissouriUpset
15%
85%
27
23
✗
MIZ −15.9
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#16Ohio State
30%
70%
7
10
✓
OSU −7.8
–
–
Final
California@Oregon State
64%
36%
20
23
✗
CAL −6.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Penn State
36%
64%
25
27
✓
PSU −4.9
–
–
Final
#1Florida@Rutgers
79%
21%
28
28
✓
FLA −13.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Long Beach State
78%
22%
34
14
✓
SDSU −12.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
38%
62%
7
41
✓
STAN −4.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@TCU
27%
73%
13
30
✓
TCU −8.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Tulsa
34%
66%
21
17
✗
TLSA −6.1
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#14UCLA
34%
66%
26
26
✗
UCLA −5.7
–
–
Final
Utah@Hawaii
46%
54%
29
27
✗
HAW −0.9
–
–
Final
Duke@#8West Virginia
16%
84%
18
20
✓
WVU −15.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Wisconsin
34%
66%
17
38
✓
WIS −5.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Kent State at Akron Akron −3.5 60%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Cincinnati at Youngstown State Cincinnati −13.6 80%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Navy at Delaware Delaware −9.9 75%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Texas State at East Carolina East Carolina −15.3 85%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Southern Illinois at Illinois Illinois −30.3 98%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Drake at #23 Iowa Iowa −33.6 98%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Louisiana at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −3.5 60%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Ohio at Marshall Ohio −1.3 52%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD #11 Memphis at Murray State Memphis −27.6 96%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Nevada at Cal State Fullerton Nevada −2.8 56%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Northern Iowa at Kansas State Kansas State −12.2 79%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD North Texas at #3 Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −19.9 90%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD VMI at Virginia Virginia −31.9 98%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Wake Forest at Boston University Wake Forest −11.8 77%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Angelo State at West Texas Angelo State −9.6 72%