The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1985

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 9

Wilder than 9% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 14.8 expected

  • Biggest shockLong Beach State over Hawaii10% chance · won 33-30
  • Runner-upNC State over Wake Forest33% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upNew Mexico State over UTEP33% chance · won 22-20

Upsets

Sat, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 42 games

Final
Rice@#3Air Force
4.3%
96%
17
59
✓
AF −28.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#14Alabama
16%
84%
10
45
✓
ALA −16.5
–
–
Final
Arizona@California
55%
45%
23
17
✓
ARIZ −1.9
–
–
Final
Pacific@Arizona State
7.1%
93%
0
27
✓
ASU −24.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#16Arkansas
24%
76%
0
24
✓
ARK −11.6
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Army
41%
59%
16
20
✓
ARMY −4.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@#18USCUpset
36%
64%
20
13
✗
USC −5.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@Pittsburgh
42%
58%
29
22
✗
PITT −3.4
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#15Bowling Green
20%
80%
24
28
✓
BGSU −13.9
–
–
Final
#4BYU@Temple
67%
33%
26
24
✓
BYU −7.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Duke
17%
84%
13
34
✓
DUKE −16.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@#2Florida State
18%
82%
10
19
✓
FSU −15.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Oregon State
58%
42%
33
24
✓
FRES −3.3
–
–
Final
Georgia@#22ClemsonUpset
41%
59%
20
13
✗
CLEM −4.0
–
–
Final
Navy@Indiana
51%
49%
35
38
✗
NAVY −0.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#10Iowa
16%
84%
20
48
✓
IOWA −16.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Iowa State
43%
57%
17
20
✓
ISU −2.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@Kentucky
22%
78%
11
16
✓
UK −12.8
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@HawaiiUpset
10%
90%
33
30
✗
HAW −21.0
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#11LSU
14%
86%
3
17
✓
LSU −17.7
–
–
Final
#13West Virginia@#9Maryland
38%
62%
0
28
✓
MD −5.0
–
–
Final
#21Michigan@South Carolina
47%
53%
34
3
✗
SC −1.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#23Mississippi State
34%
66%
20
23
✓
MSST −7.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@#7Nebraska
16%
84%
25
52
✓
NEB −16.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
33%
67%
22
20
✗
UTEP −7.3
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
33%
67%
20
17
✗
WAKE −7.5
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Notre Dame
39%
61%
10
27
✓
ND −4.9
–
–
Final
#12Ohio State@Colorado
68%
32%
36
13
✓
OSU −7.7
–
–
Final
#25Stanford@OregonUpset
56%
44%
28
45
✗
STAN −2.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Penn State
31%
69%
10
17
✓
PSU −8.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Purdue
14%
86%
18
37
✓
PUR −18.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Syracuse
25%
75%
0
34
✓
SYR −11.4
–
–
Final
Missouri@Texas
36%
64%
17
21
✓
TEX −6.1
–
–
Final
TCU@Kansas State
84%
16%
24
22
✓
TCU −16.8
–
–
Final
Toledo@Wichita State
88%
12%
22
15
✓
TOL −19.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#20UCLA
32%
68%
16
34
✓
UCLA −7.9
–
–
Final
Washington State@Utah
38%
62%
37
44
✓
UTAH −5.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Utah State
50%
50%
32
35
✓
USU −0.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@Georgia Tech
35%
65%
24
13
✗
GT −6.5
–
–
Final
Washington@Houston
49%
51%
29
12
✗
HOU −0.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@#19Wisconsin
23%
77%
23
26
✓
WIS −12.6
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Wyoming
25%
75%
8
31
✓
WYO −11.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Eastern Michigan at Akron Akron −12.1 77%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Indiana State at Kansas Kansas −19.2 88%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Idaho State at Louisiana Louisiana −14.0 80%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Louisiana Tech at West Texas Louisiana Tech −18.6 87%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Western Kentucky at Louisville Louisville −2.6 56%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Montana at Minnesota Minnesota −31.2 97%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Arkansas State at Ole Miss Ole Miss −6.4 65%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at Texas A&M Texas A&M −2.4 55%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD North Texas at Texas Tech Texas Tech −3.3 58%