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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 1985

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 30

Wilder than 30% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 12.6 expected

  • Biggest shockWisconsin over Ohio State10.0% chance · won 12-7
  • Runner-upWest Texas over New Mexico State22% chance · won 55-25
  • Runner-upSan Jose State over UNLV26% chance · won 16-16

Upsets

Sat, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
Southern Miss@#13Alabama
16%
84%
13
24
✓
ALA −15.7
–
–
Final
Oregon@Arizona
24%
76%
8
20
✓
ARIZ −11.1
–
–
Final
Stanford@#21Arizona State
8.1%
92%
14
21
✓
ASU −22.0
–
–
Final
Memphis@Army
31%
68%
7
49
✓
ARMY −7.2
–
–
Final
#9Auburn@#11Georgia
40%
60%
24
10
✗
UGA −3.6
–
–
Final
Rice@#19Baylor
2.9%
97%
10
34
✓
BAY −30.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@#24Bowling Green
6.0%
94%
0
21
✓
BGSU −24.5
–
–
Final
#2Air Force@#7BYU
47%
53%
21
28
✓
BYU −0.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
68%
32%
23
9
✓
CMU −8.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Colorado State
60%
40%
19
21
✗
UTAH −4.6
–
–
Final
NC State@Duke
33%
67%
19
31
✓
DUKE −6.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#5Florida
9.0%
91%
13
15
✓
FLA −21.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Long Beach State
75%
25%
33
31
✓
FRES −11.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Georgia Tech
15%
85%
10
41
✓
GT −16.2
–
–
Final
Indiana@Illinois
18%
82%
24
41
✓
ILL −14.2
–
–
Final
#6Iowa@Purdue
76%
24%
27
24
✓
IOWA −12.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas State
44%
56%
21
14
✗
KSU −2.0
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#20LSU
16%
84%
15
17
✓
LSU −15.2
–
–
Final
#16Maryland@Clemson
61%
39%
34
31
✓
MD −4.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Eastern Michigan
64%
36%
31
16
✓
M-OH −6.4
–
–
Final
#3Michigan@Minnesota
78%
22%
48
7
✓
MICH −12.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Michigan State
12%
88%
0
32
✓
MSU −18.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@#4Nebraska
6.2%
94%
6
56
✓
NEB −24.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@UNLV
26%
74%
16
16
✗
UNLV −9.7
–
–
Final
Wyoming@New Mexico
38%
62%
16
41
✓
UNM −4.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Northern Illinois
31%
69%
7
35
✓
NIU −7.2
–
–
Final
Colorado@#8Oklahoma
14%
86%
0
31
✓
OU −17.0
–
–
Final
#22Oklahoma State@Missouri
88%
12%
21
19
✓
OKST −18.9
–
–
Final
#18Notre Dame@#25Penn State
48%
52%
6
36
✓
PSU −0.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UTEP
73%
27%
34
6
✓
SDSU −10.1
–
–
Final
Navy@South Carolina
42%
58%
31
34
✓
SC −2.6
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#23SMU
13%
87%
7
9
✓
SMU −17.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@Syracuse
21%
79%
21
41
✓
SYR −12.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#15Tennessee
9.2%
91%
14
34
✓
TENN −20.8
–
–
Final
TCU@Texas
7.1%
93%
0
20
✓
TEX −23.1
–
–
Final
#17Arkansas@Texas A&MUpset
50%
50%
6
10
✗
ARK −0.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@East Carolina
42%
58%
21
20
✗
ECU −2.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#12UCLA
1.5%
98%
0
41
✓
UCLA −34.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Virginia
31%
69%
22
24
✓
UVA −7.4
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Vanderbilt
59%
41%
38
24
✓
VT −4.1
–
–
Final
USC@Washington
36%
64%
17
20
✓
WASH −5.3
–
–
Final
West Texas@New Mexico StateUpset
21%
78%
55
25
✗
NMSU −12.1
–
–
Final
Temple@West Virginia
37%
63%
10
23
✓
WVU −4.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Kent State
30%
70%
34
3
✗
KENT −8.1
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#10Ohio StateUpset
10.0%
90%
12
7
✗
OSU −20.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 16 · TBD Cal State Fullerton at Northern Arizona Cal State Fullerton −4.5 60%
Sat, Nov 16 · TBD Eastern Kentucky at Louisville Louisville −4.9 63%
Sat, Nov 16 · TBD Western Carolina at #14 Florida State Florida State −43.3 >99%
Sat, Nov 16 · TBD McNeese at Louisiana Louisiana −7.3 69%
Sat, Nov 16 · TBD Colgate at Rutgers Rutgers −18.9 89%
Sat, Nov 16 · TBD Montana State at Washington State Washington State −29.2 97%