The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1985

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 54

Wilder than 54% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 13.1 expected

  • Biggest shockDrake over Iowa State5.2% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upCal State Fullerton over San Jose State17% chance · won 20-18
  • Runner-upLong Beach State over Boise State19% chance · won 17-16

Upsets

Thu, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Cal State Fullerton@San Jose StateUpset
17%
83%
20
18
✗
SJSU −16.1
–
–

Fri, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Wyoming@Utah
15%
85%
20
37
✓
UTAH −17.1
–
–

Sat, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
Notre Dame@#2Air Force
17%
84%
15
21
✓
AF −16.3
–
–
Final
#13SMU@ArizonaUpset
61%
39%
6
28
✗
SMU −4.5
–
–
Final
#15Arkansas@TCU
74%
26%
41
0
✓
ARK −10.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#17Auburn
27%
73%
0
41
✓
AUB −10.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
50%
50%
0
29
✗
PK
–
–
Final
#16Baylor@Houston
70%
30%
24
21
✓
BAY −8.6
–
–
Final
Boston College@Rutgers
39%
61%
20
10
✗
RUTG −4.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Western Michigan
82%
18%
48
7
✓
BGSU −14.9
–
–
Final
#8BYU@Colorado State
89%
11%
42
7
✓
BYU −20.5
–
–
Final
California@Missouri
47%
53%
39
32
✗
MIZ −1.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Central Michigan
17%
83%
17
21
✓
CMU −15.8
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
58%
42%
10
21
✗
TOL −3.4
–
–
Final
#3Florida@#20LSU
65%
35%
20
0
✓
FLA −6.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Georgia Tech
36%
64%
0
31
✓
GT −6.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Hawaii
57%
43%
24
24
✓
FRES −2.6
–
–
Final
#11Ohio State@IllinoisUpset
78%
22%
28
31
✗
OSU −12.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Indiana
31%
69%
7
26
✓
IU −8.1
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#5Iowa
12%
88%
31
35
✓
IOWA −20.0
–
–
Final
Clemson@Kentucky
40%
60%
7
26
✓
UK −4.4
–
–
Final
#14Maryland@NC State
90%
10%
31
17
✓
MD −20.8
–
–
Final
#4Miami (FL)@East Carolina
86%
14%
27
15
✓
MIA −18.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Miami (OH)
22%
78%
22
29
✓
M-OH −12.8
–
–
Final
#23Wisconsin@#6Michigan
26%
74%
6
33
✓
MICH −10.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@Minnesota
69%
31%
15
45
✗
PUR −7.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@Mississippi State
40%
60%
28
31
✓
MSST −4.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#1Nebraska
3.0%
97%
7
38
✓
NEB −31.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@UNLV
22%
78%
7
14
✓
UNLV −13.0
–
–
Final
#19Oklahoma@Kansas State
91%
8.8%
41
6
✓
OU −22.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#10Oklahoma State
7.7%
92%
13
25
✓
OKST −23.7
–
–
Final
Pacific@New Mexico State
54%
46%
19
10
✓
Pacific −1.5
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Pittsburgh
38%
62%
7
42
✓
PITT −5.1
–
–
Final
Stanford@San Diego State
36%
64%
22
41
✓
SDSU −6.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@USC
16%
84%
0
63
✓
USC −16.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Southern Miss
15%
85%
16
38
✓
USM −17.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@Syracuse
13%
87%
0
48
✓
SYR −19.1
–
–
Final
Temple@Cincinnati
76%
24%
28
16
✓
TEM −11.9
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#12Tennessee
9.7%
90%
29
31
✓
TENN −21.6
–
–
Final
Rice@Texas
7.2%
93%
16
44
✓
TEX −24.4
–
–
Final
#24Texas A&M@Texas Tech
65%
35%
28
27
✓
TA&M −6.3
–
–
Final
#22Arizona State@#21UCLA
42%
58%
17
40
✓
UCLA −3.7
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Tulane
48%
52%
24
17
✗
TULN −1.0
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
38%
62%
14
37
✓
UVA −5.3
–
–
Final
#25Washington@Oregon
64%
36%
19
13
✓
WASH −5.6
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@West Virginia
20%
80%
9
24
✓
WVU −14.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD Yale at Army Army −29.7 96%
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD Drake at Iowa State Iowa State −27.0 95%
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Kansas Kansas −33.8 98%
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD Long Beach State at Boise State Boise State −14.7 81%
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD Wichita State at Texas-Arlington Texas-Arlington −6.5 65%
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD Indiana State at West Texas Indiana State −12.6 78%