The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1985

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 72

Wilder than 72% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 12.2 expected

  • Biggest shockUTEP over BYU1.4% chance · won 23-16
  • Runner-upKansas State over Missouri15% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upStanford over Arizona22% chance · won 28-17

Upsets

Sat, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
15%
85%
15
37
✓
AF −16.2
–
–
Final
68%
32%
28
9
✓
ALA −7.8
–
–
Final
54%
46%
21
16
✓
ASU −1.9
–
–
Final
7.3%
93%
27
57
✓
ARK −22.9
–
–
Final
14%
86%
9
21
✓
AUB −17.2
–
–
Final
8.2%
92%
0
45
✓
BAY −21.8
–
–
Final
14%
86%
14
26
✓
BGSU −16.6
–
–
Final
16%
84%
10
17
✓
CMU −15.5
–
–
Final
64%
36%
17
24
✗
BC −6.0
–
–
Final
13%
87%
10
39
✓
CLEM −17.5
–
–
Final
50%
50%
30
19
✓
CSU −0.5
–
–
Final
4.8%
95%
18
35
✓
FLA −26.3
–
–
Final
73%
27%
20
10
✓
FSU −10.4
–
–
Final
85%
15%
38
19
✓
FRES −17.1
–
–
Final
34%
66%
6
26
✓
UGA −6.0
–
–
Final
58%
42%
6
6
✓
TENN −3.7
–
–
Final
60%
40%
27
17
✓
HAW −4.6
–
–
Final
40%
60%
25
38
✓
ILL −3.3
–
–
Final
89%
11%
49
10
✓
IOWA −19.9
–
–
Final
15%
85%
20
17
✗
MIZ −16.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Long Beach State
24%
76%
17
38
✓
Long Beach State −11.1
–
–
Final
65%
35%
13
20
✗
UNLV −6.4
–
–
Final
8.2%
92%
10
40
✓
MD −21.9
–
–
Final
0.2%
>99%
7
45
✓
MIA −46.8
–
–
Final
24%
76%
15
32
✓
M-OH −10.8
–
–
Final
4.3%
96%
15
42
✓
MICH −27.1
–
–
Final
26%
74%
28
24
✗
PUR −9.7
–
–
Final
31%
69%
7
35
✓
MISS −7.5
–
–
Final
62%
38%
7
21
✗
PITT −5.5
–
–
Final
10%
90%
7
17
✓
NEB −19.8
–
–
Final
#24USC@Notre DameUpset
42%
58%
3
37
✓
ND −2.9
–
–
Final
72%
28%
23
19
✓
OSU −9.8
–
–
Final
3.2%
97%
14
59
✓
OU −29.4
–
–
Final
60%
40%
17
10
✓
OKST −4.4
–
–
Final
30%
70%
49
37
✗
SDSU −8.1
–
–
Final
39%
61%
0
27
✓
PSU −4.1
–
–
Final
47%
53%
26
34
✓
SJSU −0.8
–
–
Final
39%
61%
14
44
✓
SMU −4.0
–
–
Final
78%
22%
17
28
✗
ARIZ −12.9
–
–
Final
46%
54%
14
29
✓
SYR −0.9
–
–
Final
87%
13%
43
28
✓
TA&M −18.4
–
–
Final
#5BYU@UTEPUpset
99%
1.4%
16
23
✗
BYU −35.7
–
–
Final
29%
71%
10
24
✓
TOL −8.2
–
–
Final
West Texas@Tulsa
7.6%
92%
17
44
✓
TLSA −22.5
–
–
Final
12%
88%
7
34
✓
UCLA −18.1
–
–
Final
64%
36%
20
18
✓
UVA −6.2
–
–
Final
52%
48%
0
34
✗
BALL −1.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 26 · TBD Colgate at Army Army −32.2 98%
Sat, Oct 26 · TBD Richmond at Rutgers Rutgers −23.7 93%
Sat, Oct 26 · TBD Southern Illinois at Wichita State Southern Illinois −2.8 56%