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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1985

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 70

Wilder than 70% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 15.5 expected

  • Biggest shockLong Beach State over UNLV14% chance · won 28-24
  • Runner-upColorado over Arizona19% chance · won 14-13
  • Runner-upBall State over Toledo22% chance · won 23-19

Upsets

Sat, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 43 games

Final
#1Air Force@New Mexico
84%
16%
49
12
✓
AF −16.3
–
–
Final
#10Alabama@Vanderbilt
78%
22%
40
20
✓
ALA −12.7
–
–
Final
USC@Arizona State
44%
56%
0
24
✓
ASU −2.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#13Arkansas
3.3%
97%
13
45
✓
ARK −30.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@ToledoUpset
22%
78%
23
19
✗
TOL −12.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#20Baylor
30%
70%
0
31
✓
BAY −8.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ohio
78%
22%
13
7
✓
CMU −12.8
–
–
Final
Colorado@#23ArizonaUpset
19%
81%
14
13
✗
ARIZ −14.6
–
–
Final
#2Florida@#22Mississippi State
64%
36%
36
22
✓
FLA −6.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@#3Florida State
21%
79%
20
24
✓
FSU −13.3
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#18Georgia
24%
76%
21
35
✓
UGA −11.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Clemson
38%
62%
14
3
✗
CLEM −5.0
–
–
Final
Houston@Louisville
65%
35%
49
27
✓
HOU −6.1
–
–
Final
Indiana@Missouri
33%
67%
36
17
✗
MIZ −7.6
–
–
Final
#12Iowa@Iowa State
78%
22%
57
3
✓
IOWA −12.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Kent State
54%
46%
3
28
✗
EMU −1.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Kentucky
21%
79%
7
27
✓
UK −13.6
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@UNLVUpset
14%
86%
28
24
✗
UNLV −17.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Wichita State
67%
33%
23
15
✓
UL −7.1
–
–
Final
#7Miami (FL)@Boston College
63%
37%
45
10
✓
MIA −5.3
–
–
Final
#6Maryland@#9Michigan
45%
55%
0
20
✓
MICH −2.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Michigan State
16%
84%
3
7
✓
MSU −16.8
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Tulane
57%
43%
27
10
✓
MISS −2.7
–
–
Final
Navy@Virginia
27%
73%
17
13
✗
UVA −10.4
–
–
Final
Oregon@#4Nebraska
18%
82%
0
63
✓
NEB −15.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Northwestern
44%
56%
16
38
✓
NU −2.4
–
–
Final
Washington State@#11Ohio State
19%
81%
32
48
✓
OSU −14.7
–
–
Final
#24Oklahoma@Minnesota
66%
34%
13
7
✓
OU −6.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#14Oklahoma State
19%
82%
10
45
✓
OKST −15.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@Pacific
67%
33%
7
33
✗
USU −7.3
–
–
Final
#25Penn State@Rutgers
47%
53%
17
10
✗
RUTG −1.3
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Pittsburgh
50%
50%
10
10
✓
WVU −0.1
–
–
Final
#17Notre Dame@PurdueUpset
54%
46%
17
35
✗
ND −1.8
–
–
Final
Colorado State@San Diego State
27%
73%
23
48
✓
SDSU −10.1
–
–
Final
SMU@TCU
47%
53%
56
21
✗
TCU −1.3
–
–
Final
Temple@East Carolina
52%
48%
21
7
✓
TEM −0.6
–
–
Final
#8Auburn@#19Tennessee
54%
46%
20
38
✗
AUB −1.5
–
–
Final
Texas@Stanford
47%
53%
38
34
✗
STAN −1.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Texas A&M
28%
72%
10
45
✓
TA&M −9.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@Utah
10%
90%
19
55
✓
UTAH −20.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Virginia Tech
66%
34%
14
24
✗
SYR −6.9
–
–
Final
#16UCLA@WashingtonUpset
51%
49%
14
21
✗
UCLA −0.2
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Wyoming
71%
29%
41
17
✓
WIS −9.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Army at Pennsylvania Army −27.0 95%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Akron at #21 Bowling Green Bowling Green −12.5 77%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Fresno State at Cal Poly Fresno State −28.5 96%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Furman at NC State NC State −12.7 78%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Oregon State at Grambling Oregon State −10.3 74%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD VMI at North Carolina North Carolina −36.1 98%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD North Texas at Kansas State North Texas −6.0 64%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Lamar at Rice Rice −17.9 86%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Northwestern State at Southern Miss Southern Miss −23.5 92%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Appalachian State at Wake Forest Wake Forest −5.5 63%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Texas A&M-Kingsville at West Texas Texas A&M-Kingsville −8.6 70%