The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1993

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 19

Wilder than 19% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 11.3 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthern Illinois over Nevada17% chance · won 46-42
  • Runner-upKentucky over South Carolina26% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upNavy over Bowling Green28% chance · won 27-20

Upsets

Thu, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Kentucky@South Carolina
26%
74%
21
17
✗
SC −10.7
–
–

Sat, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
Louisiana Tech@#9Alabama
3.5%
96%
3
56
✓
ALA −30.1
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon State
66%
34%
33
0
✓
ARIZ −6.8
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#23Arizona State
27%
73%
10
12
✓
ASU −10.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Auburn
21%
79%
24
35
✓
AUB −13.3
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Baylor
33%
67%
26
28
✓
BAY −7.5
–
–
Final
Temple@Boston College
6.6%
93%
14
66
✓
BC −25.1
–
–
Final
Air Force@BYU
18%
82%
3
30
✓
BYU −15.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#15California
11%
89%
13
46
✓
CAL −20.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Clemson
34%
66%
13
16
✓
CLEM −7.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@#22Fresno State
20%
80%
14
30
✓
FRES −13.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@#25Hawaii
8.7%
91%
0
52
✓
HAW −22.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@Kansas State
13%
87%
20
36
✓
KSU −18.6
–
–
Final
Texas@#21Louisville
26%
74%
10
41
✓
LOU −10.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@Arkansas
45%
55%
6
0
✗
ARK −2.1
–
–
Final
#2Miami (FL)@#12Colorado
69%
31%
35
29
✓
MIA −8.1
–
–
Final
Houston@#5Michigan
3.1%
97%
21
42
✓
MICH −31.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Michigan State
27%
73%
34
48
✓
MSU −10.3
–
–
Final
Georgia@Ole Miss
35%
65%
14
31
✓
MISS −6.6
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Tulane
64%
36%
36
10
✓
MSST −5.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Navy
72%
28%
20
27
✗
BGSU −9.8
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#4Nebraska
3.0%
97%
13
48
✓
NEB −31.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
34%
66%
7
42
✓
UNM −6.8
–
–
Final
#20North Carolina@#16NC State
35%
65%
35
14
✗
NCSU −6.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@NevadaUpset
17%
83%
46
42
✗
NEV −15.9
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Northwestern
37%
63%
14
26
✓
NU −5.6
–
–
Final
#3Notre Dame@Purdue
79%
21%
17
0
✓
ND −13.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#8Oklahoma
9.3%
91%
20
41
✓
OU −22.1
–
–
Final
Oregon@Illinois
55%
45%
13
7
✓
ORE −1.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#13Penn State
12%
88%
7
31
✓
PSU −19.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Rice
41%
59%
21
49
✓
RICE −3.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@San Diego State
27%
73%
17
48
✓
SDSU −10.4
–
–
Final
Washington State@USC
35%
65%
3
34
✓
USC −6.6
–
–
Final
SMU@TCU
45%
55%
21
15
✗
TCU −2.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#17Syracuse
10%
90%
21
24
✓
SYR −21.0
–
–
Final
LSU@#7Tennessee
4.2%
96%
20
42
✓
TENN −28.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Toledo
13%
87%
10
28
✓
TOL −18.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@Stanford
31%
69%
28
25
✗
STAN −8.4
–
–
Final
Duke@#11Virginia
9.8%
90%
0
35
✓
UVA −21.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@#19Virginia Tech
13%
87%
28
55
✓
VT −19.0
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#10Washington
6.9%
93%
0
35
✓
WASH −24.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@#24West Virginia
17%
83%
3
35
✓
WVU −15.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Western Michigan
40%
60%
0
17
✓
WMU −4.3
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Indiana
41%
59%
27
15
✗
IU −4.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Wyoming
56%
44%
12
28
✗
UTAH −2.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD Southern Illinois at Arkansas State Arkansas State −25.7 94%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD VMI at Army Army −14.2 80%
Sat, Sep 25 · TBD Sacramento State at Pacific Sacramento State −9.0 71%