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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1993

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 45

Wilder than 45% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 14.2 expected

  • Biggest shockTexas over Syracuse15% chance · won 21-21
  • Runner-upWyoming over San Jose State19% chance · won 36-25
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Memphis25% chance · won 17-15

Upsets

Thu, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#14Virginia@Georgia Tech
67%
33%
35
14
✓
UVA −7.3
–
–

Sat, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 40 games

Final
Arkansas@#11Alabama
14%
86%
3
43
✓
ALA −18.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@Illinois
59%
41%
16
14
✓
ARIZ −3.8
–
–
Final
Auburn@LSU
49%
51%
34
10
✗
LSU −0.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Ohio
63%
37%
24
16
✓
BALL −5.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@Utah State
45%
55%
28
24
✗
USU −2.1
–
–
Final
BYU@Colorado State
72%
28%
27
22
✓
BYU −9.5
–
–
Final
#22California@Temple
81%
19%
58
0
✓
CAL −14.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
38%
62%
23
30
✓
CIN −4.9
–
–
Final
Army@Duke
27%
73%
21
42
✓
DUKE −10.2
–
–
Final
#4Tennessee@#19Florida
63%
37%
34
41
✗
TENN −5.4
–
–
Final
#1Florida State@#13North Carolina
74%
26%
33
7
✓
FSU −10.7
–
–
Final
#23Fresno State@New Mexico
69%
31%
41
24
✓
FRES −8.1
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Georgia
38%
62%
37
52
✓
UGA −5.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@#24Hawaii
2.6%
97%
17
49
✓
HAW −32.2
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Indiana
29%
71%
8
24
✓
IU −9.4
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Minnesota
66%
34%
30
25
✓
KSU −6.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@LouisianaUpset
75%
25%
15
17
✗
MEM −11.1
–
–
Final
#16Arizona State@LouisvilleUpset
50%
50%
17
35
✗
LOU −0.1
–
–
Final
#15Virginia Tech@#2Miami (FL)
12%
88%
2
21
✓
MIA −19.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
39%
61%
7
49
✓
MISS −4.6
–
–
Final
#3Nebraska@UCLA
81%
19%
14
13
✓
NEB −14.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@UNLV
74%
26%
20
33
✗
CMU −10.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
51%
49%
14
31
✗
UTEP −0.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Northern Illinois
24%
76%
7
23
✓
NIU −11.6
–
–
Final
Boston College@Northwestern
60%
40%
21
22
✗
BC −4.0
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#5Notre Dame
15%
85%
14
36
✓
ND −17.5
–
–
Final
#9Ohio State@Pittsburgh
88%
12%
63
28
✓
OSU −19.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Tulsa
39%
61%
16
10
✗
TLSA −4.8
–
–
Final
#18Penn State@Iowa
55%
45%
31
0
✓
PSU −1.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Air Force
33%
67%
38
31
✗
AF −7.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@South Carolina
24%
76%
3
34
✓
SC −11.8
–
–
Final
#8Colorado@StanfordUpset
60%
40%
37
41
✗
COLO −3.9
–
–
Final
Texas@#12Syracuse
15%
85%
21
21
✗
SYR −17.4
–
–
Final
Missouri@#21Texas A&M
30%
70%
0
73
✓
TA&M −8.6
–
–
Final
Utah@Kansas
33%
67%
41
16
✗
KU −7.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington State
28%
72%
6
51
✓
WSU −9.7
–
–
Final
#20West Virginia@Maryland
68%
32%
42
37
✓
WVU −7.8
–
–
Final
Akron@Western Michigan
72%
28%
3
20
✗
AKR −9.7
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Wisconsin
35%
65%
7
28
✓
WIS −6.6
–
–
Final
Wyoming@San Jose StateUpset
19%
81%
36
25
✗
SJSU −14.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD UCF at East Carolina East Carolina −13.9 80%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Western Illinois at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −8.0 68%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Navy Navy −12.5 77%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Texas Southern at Nevada Nevada −28.3 96%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Sam Houston at Rice Rice −20.4 89%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at Southern Miss Southern Miss −10.8 74%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Southern Illinois at Toledo Toledo −32.0 97%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD William & Mary at Tulane Tulane −18.4 86%
Sat, Sep 18 · TBD Appalachian State at Wake Forest Wake Forest −1.0 52%