The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1997

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 42 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 43

Wilder than 43% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 11.7 expected

  • Biggest shockDuke over Navy18% chance · won 26-17
  • Runner-upWest Virginia over Miami (FL)19% chance · won 28-17
  • Runner-upHouston over Minnesota28% chance · won 45-43

Upsets

Thu, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
NC State@Wake Forest
66%
34%
18
19
✗
NCSU −6.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 40 games

Final
San Diego State@#24Air Force
21%
79%
18
24
✓
AF −13.5
–
–
Final
#25Southern Miss@#21Alabama
40%
60%
13
27
✓
ALA −4.2
–
–
Final
UAB@Louisiana
58%
42%
42
7
✓
UAB −3.1
–
–
Final
#12Arizona State@Oregon State
87%
13%
13
10
✓
ASU −18.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Arkansas
46%
54%
13
17
✓
ARK −1.7
–
–
Final
UCF@#18Auburn
21%
79%
14
41
✓
AUB −13.5
–
–
Final
BYU@SMU
76%
24%
19
16
✓
BYU −11.8
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Boston College
52%
48%
24
6
✓
CIN −0.7
–
–
Final
#23Wyoming@#20Colorado
41%
59%
19
20
✓
COLO −3.9
–
–
Final
Navy@DukeUpset
82%
18%
17
26
✗
NAVY −15.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
35%
65%
31
24
✗
CMU −6.5
–
–
Final
#1Florida@Kentucky
90%
10%
55
28
✓
FLA −21.1
–
–
Final
Clemson@Georgia Tech
50%
50%
20
23
✓
GT −0.2
–
–
Final
Houston@Minnesota
28%
72%
45
43
✗
MINN −9.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@#11Iowa
3.9%
96%
10
38
✓
IOWA −29.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#17Kansas State
9.7%
90%
0
58
✓
KSU −21.6
–
–
Final
Akron@#19LSU
3.3%
97%
0
56
✓
LSU −30.6
–
–
Final
Marshall@Ball State
42%
58%
42
16
✗
BALL −3.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@Temple
45%
55%
24
21
✗
TEM −2.4
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Army
58%
42%
38
14
✓
M-OH −3.4
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#7Michigan
17%
83%
14
21
✓
MICH −16.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
43%
57%
3
15
✓
MISS −3.2
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Mississippi State
59%
41%
17
37
✗
SC −3.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@#10North Carolina
18%
82%
20
48
✓
UNC −15.5
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ohio
16%
84%
7
31
✓
OHIO −16.9
–
–
Final
#5Ohio State@Missouri
84%
16%
31
10
✓
OSU −16.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@Oklahoma
40%
60%
14
35
✓
OU −4.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Oklahoma State
6.5%
94%
7
38
✓
OKST −25.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Purdue
46%
54%
9
21
✓
PUR −1.6
–
–
Final
USC@California
44%
56%
27
17
✗
CAL −2.8
–
–
Final
Oregon@Stanford
45%
55%
49
58
✓
STAN −2.4
–
–
Final
Texas@Rice
50%
50%
38
31
✓
PK
–
–
Final
#15Texas A&M@North Texas
94%
5.7%
36
10
✓
TA&M −26.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
50%
50%
16
24
✗
NMSU −0.1
–
–
Final
Nevada@Toledo
41%
59%
13
31
✓
TOL −3.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@#16UCLA
22%
78%
27
40
✓
UCLA −12.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#9Virginia Tech
0.4%
>99%
0
50
✓
VT −44.5
–
–
Final
Boise State@Washington State
1.9%
98%
0
58
✓
WSU −34.4
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#14Miami (FL)Upset
19%
81%
28
17
✗
MIA −14.7
–
–
Final
Indiana@Wisconsin
23%
77%
26
27
✓
WIS −12.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD Illinois State at UNLV UNLV −22.0 91%