The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1997

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 98

Wilder than 98% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 12.5 expected

  • Biggest shockNorth Texas over Texas Tech3.1% chance · won 30-27
  • Runner-upArkansas over Alabama7.3% chance · won 17-16
  • Runner-upKent State over Eastern Michigan8.0% chance · won 41-38

Upsets

Thu, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#9Miami (FL)@PittsburghUpset
82%
18%
17
21
✗
MIA −15.2
–
–

Sat, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
Air Force@Colorado State
34%
66%
24
0
✗
CSU −7.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#15AlabamaUpset
7.3%
93%
17
16
✗
ALA −24.2
–
–
Final
#22Auburn@#17LSU
34%
66%
31
28
✗
LSU −7.0
–
–
Final
Boston College@Rutgers
77%
23%
35
21
✓
BC −12.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Akron
64%
36%
31
28
✓
BGSU −5.9
–
–
Final
BYU@#7Arizona StateUpset
15%
85%
13
10
✗
ASU −17.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@California
17%
83%
36
40
✓
CAL −16.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@UCF
22%
78%
10
41
✓
UCF −12.7
–
–
Final
Kansas@Cincinnati
56%
44%
7
34
✗
KU −2.5
–
–
Final
Army@Duke
67%
33%
17
20
✗
ARMY −7.2
–
–
Final
#4Tennessee@#1Florida
30%
70%
20
33
✓
FLA −8.7
–
–
Final
#5Florida State@Clemson
82%
18%
35
28
✓
FSU −14.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Georgia
4.7%
95%
3
42
✓
UGA −27.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Wake Forest
58%
42%
28
26
✓
GT −3.3
–
–
Final
#16Iowa@Iowa State
90%
9.7%
63
20
✓
IOWA −21.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Eastern MichiganUpset
8.0%
92%
41
38
✗
EMU −23.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Indiana
26%
74%
49
7
✗
IU −10.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Louisiana Tech
44%
56%
28
56
✓
LT −2.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@#11Michigan
6.6%
93%
3
38
✓
MICH −25.1
–
–
Final
#14Michigan State@#25Notre Dame
53%
47%
23
7
✓
MSU −1.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Memphis
41%
59%
20
17
✗
MEM −3.9
–
–
Final
Missouri@Tulsa
66%
34%
42
21
✓
MIZ −6.6
–
–
Final
Navy@SMU
48%
52%
46
16
✗
SMU −0.9
–
–
Final
#3Nebraska@#6Washington
44%
56%
27
14
✗
WASH −2.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UNLV
32%
68%
15
25
✓
UNLV −7.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Utah State
54%
46%
25
22
✓
UNM −1.5
–
–
Final
#12North Carolina@Maryland
88%
12%
40
14
✓
UNC −19.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@NC State
1.9%
98%
14
41
✓
NCSU −34.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@Texas TechUpset
3.1%
97%
30
27
✗
TTU −30.9
–
–
Final
Arizona@#2Ohio State
7.7%
92%
20
28
✓
OSU −23.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Oregon
10%
90%
40
43
✓
ORE −21.3
–
–
Final
#10Penn State@Louisville
86%
14%
57
21
✓
PSU −17.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Purdue
28%
72%
14
28
✓
PUR −9.7
–
–
Final
Rice@NorthwesternUpset
25%
75%
40
34
✗
NU −11.4
–
–
Final
South Carolina@East Carolina
35%
65%
26
0
✗
ECU −6.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@#24Southern Miss
20%
80%
19
35
✓
USM −14.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon State
61%
39%
27
24
✓
STAN −4.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@#23Syracuse
16%
84%
19
30
✓
SYR −16.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#21Texas A&M
2.7%
97%
0
66
✓
TA&M −31.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
54%
46%
23
13
✓
TOL −1.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@Utah
6.8%
93%
3
56
✓
UTAH −24.8
–
–
Final
TCU@Vanderbilt
36%
64%
16
40
✓
VAN −6.3
–
–
Final
#8Virginia Tech@Temple
96%
4.4%
23
13
✓
VT −28.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@Illinois
76%
24%
35
22
✓
WSU −11.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Wisconsin
44%
56%
10
36
✓
WIS −2.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#18Wyoming
0.7%
99%
10
30
✓
WYO −40.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Jacksonville State at UAB UAB −2.5 56%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Weber State at Boise State Boise State −10.3 73%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Western Illinois at Marshall Marshall −26.1 94%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Buffalo at Ohio Ohio −19.7 88%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Southern Utah at Arkansas State Arkansas State −15.7 83%