The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1997

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 55

Wilder than 55% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 13.1 expected

  • Biggest shockMarshall over Army6.9% chance · won 35-25
  • Runner-upOklahoma over Syracuse16% chance · won 36-34
  • Runner-upWake Forest over Northwestern17% chance · won 27-20

Upsets

Thu, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Auburn@Virginia
34%
66%
28
17
✗
UVA −5.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon
38%
62%
9
16
✓
ORE −4.1
–
–

Fri, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Navy@San Diego State
37%
63%
31
45
✓
SDSU −4.7
–
–

Sat, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 41 games

Final
Air Force@Rice
45%
55%
41
12
✗
RICE −1.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas
11%
89%
16
28
✓
ARK −19.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@Fresno State
44%
56%
37
35
✗
FRES −1.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Bowling Green
70%
30%
21
28
✗
M-OH −8.7
–
–
Final
California@Houston
40%
60%
35
3
✗
HOU −3.4
–
–
Final
#16Colorado State@#13Colorado
37%
63%
21
31
✓
COLO −4.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#3Florida
3.5%
96%
6
82
✓
FLA −27.9
–
–
Final
#10Florida State@USC
58%
42%
14
7
✓
FSU −3.5
–
–
Final
TCU@Kansas
16%
84%
10
17
✓
KU −15.2
–
–
Final
#18Kansas State@Northern Illinois
94%
5.8%
47
7
✓
KSU −24.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@LSU
11%
89%
3
55
✓
LSU −18.3
–
–
Final
Marshall@ArmyUpset
6.9%
93%
35
25
✗
ARMY −22.7
–
–
Final
UAB@Memphis
18%
82%
7
28
✓
MEM −13.5
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Michigan State
19%
81%
10
42
✓
MSU −13.3
–
–
Final
SMU@Ole Miss
43%
57%
15
23
✓
MISS −2.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Mississippi State
37%
63%
27
35
✓
MSST −4.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Missouri
29%
71%
24
44
✓
MIZ −8.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
16%
84%
14
31
✓
NEV −14.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
14%
86%
24
61
✓
UNM −16.5
–
–
Final
Indiana@#15North Carolina
18%
82%
6
23
✓
UNC −13.6
–
–
Final
NC State@Duke
62%
38%
45
14
✓
NCSU −5.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#12Notre Dame
17%
83%
13
17
✓
ND −14.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Maryland
47%
53%
21
14
✗
MD −0.6
–
–
Final
#8Syracuse@OklahomaUpset
84%
16%
34
36
✗
SYR −15.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Louisiana
63%
37%
31
7
✓
OKST −5.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@Oregon State
25%
75%
7
33
✓
ORST −9.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#14Penn State
19%
81%
17
34
✓
PSU −13.0
–
–
Final
UCF@South Carolina
25%
75%
31
33
✓
SC −9.7
–
–
Final
#22Southern Miss@Illinois
64%
36%
24
7
✓
USM −5.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
9.0%
91%
12
28
✓
STAN −20.4
–
–
Final
Boston College@Temple
58%
42%
21
28
✗
BC −3.7
–
–
Final
#5Tennessee@#25UCLA
73%
27%
30
24
✓
TENN −9.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#19Texas
5.7%
94%
14
48
✓
TEX −24.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@Toledo
49%
51%
22
36
✓
PUR −0.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Tulane
51%
49%
17
31
✗
CIN −1.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Louisville
40%
60%
27
21
✗
LOU −3.5
–
–
Final
#11Northwestern@Wake ForestUpset
83%
17%
20
27
✗
NU −15.1
–
–
Final
#17Washington@#21BYU
40%
60%
42
20
✗
BYU −3.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@West Virginia
33%
67%
17
24
✓
WVU −6.2
–
–
Final
Boise State@Wisconsin
1.8%
98%
24
28
✓
WIS −32.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#24Wyoming
17%
83%
10
56
✓
WYO −14.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD James Madison at Ball State Ball State −17.6 88%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Appalachian State at Clemson Clemson −8.5 72%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Cal State Northridge at Hawaii Hawaii −8.0 71%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Portland State at Idaho Idaho −24.2 94%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Northern Iowa at Iowa Iowa −36.8 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Sam Houston at Texas A&M Texas A&M −21.4 92%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Idaho State at Utah State Utah State −40.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Kent State at Youngstown State Kent State −6.8 66%