The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1997

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 67

Wilder than 67% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 10.0 expected

  • Biggest shockFresno State over Air Force8.9% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upOle Miss over LSU12% chance · won 36-21
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Michigan State20% chance · won 19-17

Upsets

Sat, Oct 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
#17Arizona State@Stanford
60%
40%
31
14
✓
ASU −4.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Army
10%
90%
35
37
✓
ARMY −19.9
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
26%
74%
34
37
✓
BALL −9.9
–
–
Final
Boise State@North Texas
27%
73%
17
14
✗
UNT −9.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@BYU
4.2%
96%
3
17
✓
BYU −27.4
–
–
Final
Kansas@#24Colorado
19%
81%
6
42
✓
COLO −13.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
40%
60%
14
7
✗
WYO −3.4
–
–
Final
Akron@Eastern Michigan
36%
64%
0
45
✓
EMU −5.1
–
–
Final
#2Florida@#11Auburn
63%
37%
24
10
✓
FLA −5.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#3Florida State
7.9%
92%
0
38
✓
FSU −22.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Air ForceUpset
8.9%
91%
20
17
✗
AF −21.1
–
–
Final
#21Georgia@Vanderbilt
73%
27%
34
13
✓
UGA −10.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@HoustonUpset
76%
24%
38
41
✗
CIN −11.7
–
–
Final
#13Texas A&M@#14Kansas State
41%
59%
17
36
✓
KSU −3.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Kentucky
6.3%
94%
14
49
✓
UK −24.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana Tech
6.4%
94%
14
42
✓
LT −24.0
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Boston College
74%
26%
45
44
✓
MIA −10.8
–
–
Final
Marshall@#23Miami (OH)
17%
83%
21
45
✓
M-OH −14.9
–
–
Final
#18Iowa@#8Michigan
26%
74%
24
28
✓
MICH −9.7
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#15LSUUpset
12%
88%
36
21
✗
LSU −18.7
–
–
Final
Texas@Missouri
46%
54%
29
37
✓
MIZ −1.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#1Nebraska
4.1%
96%
0
29
✓
NEB −27.6
–
–
Final
Idaho@Nevada
24%
76%
23
42
✓
NEV −10.6
–
–
Final
#10North Carolina@NC State
78%
22%
20
7
✓
UNC −12.7
–
–
Final
#9Michigan State@NorthwesternUpset
80%
20%
17
19
✗
MSU −14.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
7.6%
92%
0
24
✓
OHIO −22.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@#4Ohio State
1.7%
98%
0
31
✓
OSU −33.6
–
–
Final
Baylor@Oklahoma
22%
78%
23
24
✓
OU −12.1
–
–
Final
Utah@Oregon
34%
66%
13
31
✓
ORE −6.2
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#6Penn State
2.0%
98%
15
16
✓
PSU −32.6
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Purdue
41%
59%
20
45
✓
PUR −3.1
–
–
Final
Rice@New Mexico
39%
61%
35
23
✗
UNM −4.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Diego State
19%
80%
17
20
✓
SDSU −13.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@UTEP
33%
67%
10
7
✗
UTEP −6.6
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Arkansas
58%
42%
39
13
✓
SC −3.8
–
–
Final
USC@Notre Dame
31%
69%
20
17
✗
ND −7.3
–
–
Final
Temple@#16Syracuse
3.2%
97%
7
60
✓
SYR −29.4
–
–
Final
#5Tennessee@#22Alabama
70%
30%
38
21
✓
TENN −8.8
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
1.3%
99%
14
41
✓
TOL −35.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Tulane
13%
87%
16
33
✓
TULN −17.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@TCU
28%
72%
33
22
✗
TCU −9.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#12UCLA
6.3%
94%
10
34
✓
UCLA −24.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Utah State
5.1%
95%
7
38
✓
USU −25.9
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
11%
89%
10
13
✓
UVA −19.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@Wake Forest
32%
68%
17
35
✓
WAKE −7.1
–
–
Final
#7Washington@Arizona
79%
21%
58
28
✓
WASH −13.3
–
–
Final
California@#20Washington State
15%
85%
37
63
✓
WSU −16.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Western Michigan
8.4%
92%
27
50
✓
WMU −21.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 18 · TBD VMI at Navy Navy −33.2 98%