The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1997

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 18

Wilder than 18% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 11.0 expected

  • Biggest shockPurdue over Notre Dame22% chance · won 28-17
  • Runner-upArizona State over Miami (FL)23% chance · won 23-12
  • Runner-upUCLA over Texas24% chance · won 66-3

Upsets

Thu, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#19Alabama@Vanderbilt
75%
25%
20
0
✓
ALA −11.3
–
–

Sat, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
UNLV@#25Air Force
3.9%
96%
24
25
✓
AF −29.3
–
–
Final
UAB@Arizona
8.2%
92%
10
24
✓
ARIZ −23.2
–
–
Final
#9Arizona State@#3Miami (FL)Upset
23%
77%
23
12
✗
MIA −12.1
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#17Auburn
11%
89%
9
19
✓
AUB −20.4
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Boston College
68%
32%
24
31
✗
WVU −7.6
–
–
Final
Boise State@Central Michigan
10%
90%
26
44
✓
CMU −21.0
–
–
Final
Clemson@NC State
33%
67%
19
17
✗
NCSU −7.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah State
66%
34%
35
24
✓
CSU −6.6
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@East Carolina
17%
83%
24
25
✓
ECU −16.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@#5Florida State
3.1%
97%
7
50
✓
FSU −31.0
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Georgia
30%
70%
15
31
✓
UGA −8.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@Indiana
35%
65%
6
33
✓
IU −6.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#23Iowa
9.5%
90%
16
54
✓
IOWA −21.8
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas
33%
67%
7
15
✓
KU −7.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@#13Kansas State
13%
87%
20
23
✓
KSU −18.5
–
–
Final
#18LSU@Mississippi State
69%
31%
24
9
✓
LSU −8.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana Tech
13%
87%
16
17
✓
LT −18.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@Louisville
36%
64%
14
26
✓
LOU −5.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@Kent State
75%
25%
42
17
✓
MRSH −11.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Miami (OH)
11%
89%
20
49
✓
M-OH −20.3
–
–
Final
#10Colorado@MichiganUpset
61%
39%
3
27
✗
COLO −4.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@#21Michigan State
17%
83%
21
51
✓
MSU −15.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Minnesota
35%
65%
29
53
✓
MINN −6.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Navy
10.0%
90%
7
36
✓
NAVY −21.4
–
–
Final
UCF@#2Nebraska
2.1%
98%
24
38
✓
NEB −33.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UTEP
78%
22%
38
20
✓
UNM −12.8
–
–
Final
Stanford@#11North Carolina
16%
84%
17
28
✓
UNC −16.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Northwestern
5.2%
95%
20
24
✓
NU −27.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#4Ohio State
2.7%
97%
13
44
✓
OSU −32.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Oklahoma State
19%
81%
0
35
✓
OKST −14.6
–
–
Final
Oregon@Nevada
57%
43%
24
20
✓
ORE −2.7
–
–
Final
Temple@#12Penn State
3.5%
96%
10
52
✓
PSU −30.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Houston
56%
44%
35
24
✓
PITT −2.4
–
–
Final
#15Notre Dame@PurdueUpset
78%
22%
17
28
✗
ND −12.7
–
–
Final
Rice@Tulane
28%
72%
30
24
✗
TULN −9.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas@SMU
44%
56%
9
31
✓
SMU −2.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Texas Tech
7.6%
92%
14
59
✓
TTU −23.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
24%
76%
35
38
✓
TOL −11.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@#14TexasUpset
24%
76%
66
3
✗
TEX −11.9
–
–
Final
Utah@TCU
53%
47%
32
18
✓
UTAH −1.0
–
–
Final
#16Syracuse@#8Virginia Tech
31%
69%
3
31
✓
VT −8.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#7Washington
16%
84%
3
36
✓
WASH −16.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@USC
28%
72%
28
21
✗
USC −9.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
80%
20%
21
13
✓
WMU −14.0
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@San Jose State
78%
22%
56
10
✓
WIS −13.0
–
–
Final
#22Wyoming@Hawaii
90%
9.9%
35
6
✓
WYO −21.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Central Arkansas at Arkansas State Arkansas State −14.7 81%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Lafayette at Army Army −26.2 94%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Idaho at Idaho State Idaho −33.3 98%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Cal State Northridge at New Mexico State New Mexico State −3.5 58%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Indiana State at North Texas North Texas −24.6 93%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Richmond at Virginia Virginia −31.7 97%