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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1992

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 53

Wilder than 53% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.4 expected

  • Biggest shockUSC over Oklahoma13% chance · won 20-10
  • Runner-upOregon State over Arizona18% chance · won 14-14
  • Runner-upOhio State over Syracuse23% chance · won 35-12

Upsets

Thu, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@Rutgers
51%
49%
16
21
✗
PITT −0.2
–
–

Sat, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
Air Force@Wyoming
52%
48%
42
28
✓
AF −0.7
–
–
Final
#18Alabama@Arkansas
64%
36%
38
11
✓
ALA −5.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Arizona
18%
82%
14
14
✗
ARIZ −15.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@Arizona State
29%
71%
0
19
✓
ASU −9.3
–
–
Final
LSU@Auburn
50%
50%
28
30
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Ball State@Kent State
69%
31%
10
6
✓
BALL −8.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@Baylor
11%
89%
10
45
✓
BAY −20.2
–
–
Final
Navy@#21Boston College
3.7%
96%
0
28
✓
BC −29.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Central Michigan
18%
82%
0
24
✓
CMU −15.0
–
–
Final
#11Colorado@Minnesota
87%
13%
21
20
✓
COLO −18.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Duke
48%
52%
12
17
✓
DUKE −0.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@South Carolina
73%
27%
20
18
✓
ECU −9.9
–
–
Final
#4Florida State@#20NC State
64%
36%
34
13
✓
FSU −5.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Fresno State
19%
81%
21
52
✓
FRES −14.5
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Georgia
0.3%
>99%
0
56
✓
UGA −46.1
–
–
Final
Illinois@Houston
44%
56%
13
31
✓
HOU −2.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@Iowa State
23%
77%
14
38
✓
ISU −12.4
–
–
Final
#14Kansas@Tulsa
65%
35%
40
7
✓
KU −6.4
–
–
Final
#24Indiana@KentuckyUpset
66%
34%
25
37
✗
IU −6.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
38%
62%
14
17
✓
M-OH −5.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#8Michigan
6.2%
94%
3
35
✓
MICH −25.6
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Memphis
55%
45%
20
16
✓
MSST −1.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEPUpset
24%
76%
30
24
✗
UTEP −11.7
–
–
Final
Army@North Carolina
12%
88%
9
22
✓
UNC −19.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Arkansas State
59%
41%
31
0
✓
NIU −3.7
–
–
Final
#6Notre Dame@Michigan State
86%
14%
52
31
✓
ND −17.9
–
–
Final
Ohio State@#12SyracuseUpset
23%
77%
35
12
✗
SYR −12.3
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Oregon
49%
51%
13
16
✓
ORE −0.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#7Penn State
2.2%
98%
7
52
✓
PSU −33.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@San Jose State
20%
80%
13
38
✓
SJSU −13.8
–
–
Final
USC@#3OklahomaUpset
13%
87%
20
10
✗
OU −18.7
–
–
Final
SMU@New Mexico
40%
60%
20
13
✗
UNM −4.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Southern Miss
48%
52%
13
16
✓
USM −1.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#16Stanford
4.1%
96%
24
35
✓
STAN −29.0
–
–
Final
#10Florida@#13Tennessee
45%
55%
14
31
✓
TENN −2.3
–
–
Final
#9Texas A&M@Missouri
82%
18%
26
13
✓
TA&M −15.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Purdue
30%
70%
33
29
✗
PUR −8.6
–
–
Final
UCLA@BYU
41%
59%
17
10
✗
BYU −3.8
–
–
Final
#19Ole Miss@VanderbiltUpset
72%
28%
9
31
✗
MISS −9.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#15Virginia
19%
81%
24
55
✓
UVA −14.9
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Temple
75%
25%
26
7
✓
VT −11.2
–
–
Final
#5Nebraska@#2Washington
30%
70%
14
29
✓
WASH −9.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@#22West Virginia
18%
82%
33
34
✓
WVU −15.4
–
–
Final
Akron@Western Michigan
48%
52%
20
24
✓
WMU −0.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Wisconsin
49%
51%
18
39
✓
WIS −0.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Pacific at Boise State Boise State −24.5 93%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Montana at Kansas State Kansas State −33.9 98%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Florida A&M at #1 Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −58.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD McNeese at Nevada Nevada −20.0 88%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Northern Arizona at UNLV UNLV −20.0 88%