The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1992

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 28

Wilder than 28% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.5 expected

  • Biggest shockArizona over Washington23% chance · won 16-3
  • Runner-upTCU over Texas23% chance · won 23-14
  • Runner-upYoungstown State over Ohio25% chance · won 28-20

Upsets

Thu, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
40%
60%
13
22
✓
KSU −3.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
70%
30%
7
3
✓
AF −9.0
–
–
Final
18%
82%
15
29
✓
AKR −14.4
–
–
Final
85%
15%
31
11
✓
ALA −16.8
–
–
Final
77%
23%
3
16
✗
WASH −12.3
–
–
Final
28%
72%
27
31
✓
BAY −8.7
–
–
Final
91%
9.3%
28
22
✓
BGSU −21.5
–
–
Final
13%
87%
0
35
✓
BYU −17.7
–
–
Final
5.4%
95%
13
30
✓
CMU −25.4
–
–
Final
63%
37%
24
26
✗
RUTG −5.8
–
–
Final
39%
61%
7
40
✓
CLEM −4.0
–
–
Final
8.9%
91%
0
28
✓
COLO −21.1
–
–
Final
24%
76%
20
24
✓
FLA −10.7
–
–
Final
3.2%
97%
21
69
✓
FSU −29.3
–
–
Final
32%
68%
15
41
✓
FRES −6.9
–
–
Final
17%
84%
13
24
✓
HAW −15.1
–
–
Final
38%
62%
17
20
✓
ILL −4.3
–
–
Final
35%
65%
14
0
✗
IU −5.6
–
–
Final
39%
61%
7
20
✓
M-OH −3.9
–
–
Final
96%
3.8%
40
7
✓
MICH −28.8
–
–
Final
48%
52%
10
26
✓
MSU −0.3
–
–
Final
42%
58%
12
17
✓
MISS −2.8
–
–
Final
19%
81%
3
10
✓
MSST −13.3
–
–
Final
46%
54%
17
20
✓
NAVY −1.1
–
–
Final
21%
79%
7
49
✓
NEB −12.5
–
–
Final
35%
65%
31
7
✗
UVA −5.7
–
–
Final
58%
42%
23
15
✓
NIU −3.9
–
–
Final
18%
82%
7
54
✓
ND −13.9
–
–
Final
7.7%
92%
0
17
✓
OSU −22.4
–
–
Final
15%
85%
17
51
✓
OU −15.8
–
–
Final
59%
41%
17
37
✗
CAL −4.3
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Pacific
6.1%
94%
20
23
✓
Pacific −24.4
–
–
Final
44%
56%
3
34
✓
RICE −2.1
–
–
Final
18%
82%
35
39
✓
SJSU −14.0
–
–
Final
47%
53%
13
14
✓
SC −0.7
–
–
Final
74%
26%
16
41
✗
HOU −10.8
–
–
Final
45%
55%
9
23
✓
STAN −1.4
–
–
Final
20%
80%
9
28
✓
SYR −13.0
–
–
Final
9.9%
90%
18
40
✓
TA&M −20.2
–
–
Final
Texas@TCUUpset
77%
23%
14
23
✗
TEX −12.1
–
–
Final
55%
45%
10
9
✓
TOL −2.6
–
–
Final
22%
78%
39
48
✓
TLSA −11.7
–
–
Final
15%
85%
14
26
✓
UCLA −16.2
–
–
Final
23%
77%
8
48
✓
USU −11.3
–
–
Final
32%
68%
20
7
✗
UK −6.8
–
–
Final
44%
56%
28
14
✗
DUKE −1.8
–
–
Final
46%
54%
18
20
✓
WSU −1.2
–
–
Final
20%
80%
28
41
✓
WVU −12.9
–
–
Final
57%
43%
6
17
✗
SDSU −3.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD Youngstown State at Ohio Ohio −10.5 75%