The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026–27 · Week 3

Slate for Thursday, November 5, 2026

The day’s games as the page stood that morning, with final scores. 43 Division I games; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before tip-off.

Pre is the model’s win chance before tip-off; Live is its chance now, from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Tracked marks the games two betting habits would take: a dog pick, where the model has the market underdog winning outright, and a fade, against a team that keeps failing to cover. They come from a fixed rule, not a person: each one is a starting point for human judgement before any bet, never a bet on its own. The betting page keeps the rule’s record; these are tracked, not recommended.

Slates: Today · Thu, Nov 12 · Wed, Nov 11 · Tue, Nov 10 · Mon, Nov 9 · Sun, Nov 8 · Sat, Nov 7 · Fri, Nov 6 · Wed, Nov 4 · Tue, Nov 3 · Mon, Nov 2

Upsets

Best games

Thu, Nov 5 · 8:30 PM ET

South FloridaDePaul

Final USF 80, DEP 82

ModelUSF −4.4MarketDEP −6.5

Thu, Nov 5 · 5:00 PM ET

McNeeseNorth Texas

Final MCN 67, UNT 77

ModelMCN −1.7MarketMCN −2.5

Thu, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM ET

HofstraPrinceton

Final HOF 58, PRIN 60

ModelPRIN −0.7MarketPRIN −3.5

Thu, Nov 5 · 6:00 PM ET

Wake Forest#13Vanderbilt

Final WAKE 51, VAN 74

ModelVAN −18.5MarketVAN −18.5

Thu, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM ET

America East-Metro Challenge

VermontFairfield

Final UVM 79, FAIR 67

ModelFAIR −2.5MarketUVM −1.5

Thu, Nov 5 · 9:00 PM ET

TowsonUtah

Final TOW 57, UTAH 67

ModelUTAH −7.9MarketUTAH −8.5

Thu, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM ET

CornellLehigh

Final COR 64, LEH 71

ModelCOR −2.3MarketLEH −1.5

Picked for quality and closeness: both teams highly rated and the model’s line within a few points. From Christmas, when bracketology starts, these become the games that move NCAA Tournament bids most. They carry a red stripe in the lists below.

Thu, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketTracked Bid stake

Afternoon 5 games

Final
McNeese@North Texas
56%
44%
67
77
✗
MCN −1.7
MCN −2.5open MCN −1.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#13Vanderbilt
4.6%
95%
51
74
✓
VAN −18.5
VAN −18.5open VAN −17.5
–
–
Final
Bellarmine@Indiana
0.3%
>99%
69
92
✓
IU −30.7
IU −29.5open IU −26.5
–
–
Final
Chattanooga@Penn State
9.6%
90%
93
97
✓
PSU −14.4
PSU −12.5open PSU −16.5
–
–
Final
Long Island University@Seton Hall
1.5%
98%
60
67
✓
HALL −23.9
HALL −17.5open HALL −18.5
–
–

Evening 37 games

Final
Green Bay@#19Cincinnati
0.3%
>99%
64
81
✓
CIN −30.6
CIN −24.5
–
–
Final
Mercer@Virginia Tech
4.6%
95%
67
96
✓
VT −18.5
VT −20.5open VT −21.5
–
–
Final
Central Connecticut@Syracuse
1.3%
99%
49
102
✓
SYR −24.3
SYR −23.5open SYR −22.5
–
–
Final
Mercyhurst@Notre Dame
1.2%
99%
56
83
✓
ND −24.9
ND −21.5open ND −20.5
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Pittsburgh
3.7%
96%
61
80
✓
PITT −19.7
PITT −18.5open PITT −19.5
–
–
Final
Hofstra@Princeton
47%
53%
58
60
✓
PRIN −0.7
PRIN −3.5open PRIN −1.5
–
–
Final
Howard@Alcorn State
92%
8.5%
94
83
✓
HOW −15.1
HOW −8.5
–
–
Final
Cornell@Lehigh
58%
42%
64
71
✗
COR −2.3
LEH −1.5open COR −1.5
Dog pick: COR
–
Final
Georgia State@Charlotte
19%
80%
67
77
✓
CLT −9.5
CLT −11.5
–
–
Final
America East-Metro ChallengeVermont@Fairfield
41%
59%
79
67
✗
FAIR −2.5
UVM −1.5open FAIR −1.5
Dog pick: FAIR
–
Final
Delaware State@Navy
9.2%
91%
60
66
✓
NAVY −14.6
NAVY −8.5open NAVY −9.5
–
–
Final
America East-Metro ChallengeBryant@Quinnipiac
16%
84%
56
66
✓
QUIN −11.0
QUIN −6.5open QUIN −4.5
–
–
Final
America East-Metro ChallengeUMass Lowell@Merrimack
30%
70%
71
61
✗
MRMK −5.8
MRMK −9.5open MRMK −8.5
–
–
Final
America East-Metro ChallengeNJIT@Iona
17%
83%
49
72
✓
IONA −10.7
IONA −9.5
–
–
Final
America East-Metro ChallengeUMBC@Marist
38%
62%
80
88
✓
MRST −3.3
MRST −4.5
–
–
Final
America East-Metro ChallengeMaine@Sacred HeartUpset
21%
79%
74
72
✗
SHU −8.8
SHU −5.5open SHU −6.5
–
–
Final
Binghamton@Saint Peter'sUpset
17%
83%
58
55
✗
SPU −10.5
SPU −7.5open SPU −8.5
–
–
Final
Chicago State@Incarnate WordUpset
16%
84%
66
54
✗
UIW −11.1
UIW −8.5open UIW −7.5
–
–
Final
America East-Metro ChallengeNew Hampshire@Rider
73%
27%
66
55
✓
UNH −6.8
UNH −1.5open RID −1.5
–
–
Final
America East-Metro ChallengeUAlbany@Manhattan
44%
56%
72
68
✗
MAN −1.7
MAN −4.5open MAN −2.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern State@Mississippi State
1.1%
99%
44
82
✓
MSST −25.3
MSST −21.5
–
–
Final
Stonehill@Fordham
4.1%
96%
63
83
✓
FOR −19.1
FOR −20.5open FOR −16.5
–
–
Final
Jackson State@TulaneUpset
19%
82%
87
85
✗
TULN −9.9
TULN −12.5open TULN −13.5
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@#1Duke
<0.1%
>99%
52
113
✓
DUKE −44.4
DUKE −41.5
–
–
Final
Jacksonville@#5Florida
<0.1%
>99%
57
88
✓
FLA −39.5
FLA −35.5open FLA −34.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@#10Michigan State
0.5%
>99%
61
91
✓
MSU −28.5
MSU −27.5open MSU −26.5
–
–
Final
Gardner-Webb@#24Texas
<0.1%
>99%
50
98
✓
TEX −43.1
TEX −41.5open TEX −39.5
–
–
Final
VMI@SMU
0.1%
>99%
70
95
✓
SMU −32.8
SMU −24.5
–
–
Final
Le Moyne@Creighton
0.4%
>99%
55
83
✓
CREI −29.1
CREI −29.5open CREI −26.5
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Tulsa
0.6%
99%
75
94
✓
TLSA −27.9
TLSA −14.5open TLSA −15.5
–
–
Final
Jacksonville State@South Alabama
51%
49%
80
83
✗
JVST −0.3
USA −5.5open USA −2.5
Dog pick: JVST
–
Final
West Georgia@Loyola Chicago
16%
84%
53
76
✓
LUC −10.9
LUC −18.5open LUC −16.5
–
–
Final
East Texas A&M@Rice
29%
71%
72
71
✗
RICE −6.0
RICE −2.5open RICE −4.5
–
–
Final
Pennsylvania@#7Illinois
0.3%
>99%
70
112
✓
ILL −30.8
ILL −30.5open ILL −29.5
–
–
Final
South Florida@DePaul
66%
34%
80
82
✗
USF −4.4
DEP −6.5
Dog pick: USF
–
Final
Bethune-Cookman@#14Texas Tech
0.1%
>99%
58
76
✓
TTU −33.8
TTU −29.5open TTU −26.5
–
–
Final
Towson@Utah
24%
76%
57
67
✓
UTAH −7.9
UTAH −8.5open UTAH −10.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Cal Poly@#8Arizona
0.1%
>99%
84
104
✓
ARIZ −34.1
ARIZ −30.5open ARIZ −29.5
–
–