The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026–27 · Week 3

Slate for Wednesday, November 11, 2026

The day’s games as the page stood that morning, with final scores. 47 Division I games; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before tip-off.

Pre is the model’s win chance before tip-off; Live is its chance now, from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Tracked marks the games two betting habits would take: a dog pick, where the model has the market underdog winning outright, and a fade, against a team that keeps failing to cover. They come from a fixed rule, not a person: each one is a starting point for human judgement before any bet, never a bet on its own. The betting page keeps the rule’s record; these are tracked, not recommended.

Slates: Today · Thu, Nov 12 · Tue, Nov 10 · Mon, Nov 9 · Sun, Nov 8 · Sat, Nov 7 · Fri, Nov 6 · Thu, Nov 5 · Wed, Nov 4 · Tue, Nov 3 · Mon, Nov 2

Upsets

Best games

Wed, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ET

Marquette#3Michigan

Final MARQ 70, MICH 84

ModelMICH −15.5MarketMICH −3.5

Wed, Nov 11 · 11:00 PM ET

USCCalifornia

Final USC 77, CAL 65

ModelUSC −8.4MarketUSC −8.5

Wed, Nov 11 · 6:30 PM ET

CharlestonTemple

Final COFC 91, TEM 81

ModelCOFC −2.0MarketCOFC −1.5

Picked for quality and closeness: both teams highly rated and the model’s line within a few points. From Christmas, when bracketology starts, these become the games that move NCAA Tournament bids most. They carry a red stripe in the lists below.

Wed, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketTracked Bid stake

Early 4 games

Final
Fairleigh Dickinson@East Texas A&MUpset
22%
78%
80
76
✗
ETAM −8.4
ETAM −11.5open ETAM −10.5
–
–
Final
Showdown in St. PeteFlorida A&MvsKansas City
42%
58%
65
87
✓
KC −2.2
KC −8.5open KC −6.5
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@UAlbany
65%
35%
85
76
✓
DART −4.2
ALB −1.5open DART −1.5
Dog pick: DART
–
Final
Incarnate Word@UC Davis
16%
84%
69
81
✓
UCD −11.0
UCD −11.5open UCD −12.5
–
–

Afternoon 8 games

Final
Veterans ClassicSaint Joseph'svsSouth FloridaUpset
10.0%
90%
83
80
✗
USF −14.1
USF −6.5
–
–
Final
Loyola Chicago@Air Force
74%
26%
93
107
✗
LUC −6.9
LUC −10.5open LUC −8.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina A&T@East Carolina
24%
76%
67
72
✓
ECU −7.7
ECU −11.5open ECU −10.5
–
–
Final
Bethune-Cookman@San Diego State
3.7%
96%
75
88
✓
SDSU −19.7
SDSU −18.5open SDSU −17.5
–
–
Final
Veterans ClassicPennsylvania@Navy
61%
39%
76
81
✗
PENN −3.0
PENN −8.5open PENN −9.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina Central@VMI
41%
59%
51
65
✓
VMI −2.4
VMI −8.5open VMI −6.5
–
–
Final
Charleston@Temple
57%
43%
91
81
✓
COFC −2.0
COFC −1.5open TEM −1.5
–
–
Final
Southern Indiana@IU Indianapolis
39%
61%
70
74
✓
IUIN −3.0
IUIN −8.5open IUIN −5.5
–
–

Evening 29 games

Final
Marquette@#3Michigan
7.9%
92%
70
84
✓
MICH −15.5
MICH −3.5open MICH −4.5
–
–
Final
Colgate@#18St. John's
0.3%
>99%
59
90
✓
SJU −29.9
SJU −29.5open SJU −27.5
–
–
Final
NJIT@VCU
0.1%
>99%
49
87
✓
VCU −35.0
VCU −34.5open VCU −29.5
–
–
Final
South Carolina State@Notre Dame
1.1%
99%
59
99
✓
ND −25.2
ND −26.5open ND −25.5
–
–
Final
Saint Peter's@South Carolina
3.0%
97%
41
77
✓
SC −20.6
SC −22.5open SC −21.5
–
–
Final
Furman@Holy Cross
93%
7.3%
80
67
✓
FUR −16.0
FUR −11.5open FUR −13.5
–
–
Final
Campbell@East Tennessee State
12%
88%
53
68
✓
ETSU −12.7
ETSU −5.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@UNC Wilmington
32%
68%
73
91
✓
UNCW −5.2
UNCW −8.5open UNCW −6.5
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Florida Atlantic
28%
72%
90
95
✓
FAU −6.4
FAU −4.5open FAU −5.5
–
–
Final
Cornell@St. Bonaventure
36%
64%
64
88
✓
SBU −3.9
SBU −8.5
–
–
Final
American University@Drexel
61%
39%
66
64
✓
AMER −3.0
DREX −1.5
Dog pick: AMER
–
Final
Stony Brook@Princeton
30%
70%
59
69
✓
PRIN −5.8
PRIN −4.5open PRIN −3.5
–
–
Final
UMass Lowell@Massachusetts
27%
73%
62
72
✓
MASS −6.7
MASS −9.5open MASS −11.5
–
–
Final
James Madison@Delaware
54%
46%
71
61
✓
JMU −1.0
JMU −3.5
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Norfolk State
74%
26%
71
60
✓
ODU −7.2
ODU −6.5open ODU −5.5
–
–
Final
Milwaukee@Indiana State
34%
66%
82
73
✗
INST −4.6
INST −4.5open INST −5.5
–
–
Final
UNC Asheville@West Georgia
53%
47%
73
70
✓
UNCA −0.8
WGA −1.5
Dog pick: UNCA
–
Final
Pepperdine@Sam Houston
21%
79%
77
85
✓
SHSU −8.7
PEPP −3.5open SHSU −1.5
Dog pick: SHSU
–
Final
Jacksonville State@#4Houston
<0.1%
>99%
46
92
✓
HOU −36.6
HOU −36.5open HOU −34.5
–
–
Final
Robert Morris@#21Arkansas
0.5%
>99%
53
76
✓
ARK −28.1
ARK −30.5open ARK −29.5
–
–
Final
Santa Clara@North Texas
60%
40%
76
71
✓
SCU −2.8
SCU −2.5open SCU −1.5
–
–
Final
Oral Roberts@Tulsa
1.8%
98%
71
80
✓
TLSA −23.1
TLSA −18.5open TLSA −19.5
–
–
Final
Valparaiso@South Dakota State
53%
47%
69
81
✗
VAL −0.8
VAL −2.5
–
–
Final
Jackson State@Southern Miss
19%
81%
80
84
✓
USM −9.8
USM −9.5
–
–
Final
Lindenwood@#13Nebraska
0.1%
>99%
60
94
✓
NEB −35.5
NEB −34.5
–
–
Final
Cal Poly@Grand Canyon
2.8%
97%
71
99
✓
GCU −21.0
GCU −18.5
–
–
Final
Oakland@Boise State
5.7%
94%
79
111
✓
BOIS −17.4
BOIS −16.5
–
–
Final
Portland State@Colorado State
6.9%
93%
71
87
✓
CSU −16.3
CSU −16.5open CSU −14.5
–
–
Final
Stephen F. Austin@Abilene Christian
83%
17%
76
71
✓
SFA −10.5
SFA −6.5open SFA −3.5
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
Mississippi Valley State@Oregon
<0.1%
>99%
66
100
✓
ORE −40.7
ORE −36.5open ORE −37.5
–
–
Final
UTSA@Seattle UUpset
2.7%
97%
86
59
✗
SEA −21.2
SEA −16.5open SEA −13.5
–
–
Final
Pacific@Long Beach State
73%
27%
59
62
✗
PAC −6.7
PAC −5.5open PAC −6.5
–
–
Final
Chicago State@California BaptistUpset
9.2%
91%
81
62
✗
CBU −14.6
CBU −11.5open CBU −10.5
–
–
Final
USC@California
78%
22%
77
65
✓
USC −8.4
USC −8.5open USC −7.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arkansas-Pine Bluff@#22UCLA
<0.1%
>99%
37
106
✓
UCLA −42.6
UCLA −44.5open UCLA −43.5
–
–